Emerging picture shows Reform gains as Labour counts losses in heartland seats

First things first, the headlines, even so far, are only an emerging picture.

By now after a general election, the counting is all but done and the main winners and losers decided.

Not so in these elections – a deluge of key results are still to come this afternoon.

So far, we have a chunk of the results around the parts of England that have had contests, and results are just beginning to come in Scotland and Wales.

But nonetheless, there are trends that we can take a look at.

Reform are ahead, winning the most votes, as they did in last year's local elections.

And behind them there is the trailing pack of Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party of England and Wales.

The much talked about fracturing of our politics is there to see, with none of the parties managing a runaway popularity, but votes splintering in five or more different directions.

So far, Reform can point to substantial success, including big wins in Essex and the London Borough of Havering.

Labour have lost around half of the seats they have been trying to defend – and they are defending the most seats in this set of elections.

The party's rate of loss is considerably smaller in London than it is elsewhere.

The parties' spin operations are up and running. At the core of Labour's argument is that elections are often challenging for governments mid term and are poor predictors of what might happen at the next general election.

This is true, up to a point – although the governing party didn't go backwards in terms of seats in 2011, 2015, 2017 or 2021 for example. And Labour are going backwards big time.

What will be key in the coming hours and days is how Labour manages these losses psychologically, particularly the anticipated crushing loss in Wales.

Labour have won in Wales since even Sir David Attenborough was a nipper.

And it is not just in Wales where Labour is taking a sharp intake of breath.

Take Tameside in Greater Manchester, the patch of the former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner. Labour was defending 17 seats and lost 16 of them, all to Reform. That will hurt.

Not far away in Wigan, where the local MP is the cabinet minister Lisa Nandy, Labour lost all 22 seats it was defending to Reform.

Reform have won loads of new councillors, and some new councils. This discrepancy is largely because lots of the councils that have done their counting so far only had a third of their seats up for election. In other words, there was a cap on how many seats any party could win or lose.

Instead, the broad picture so far is one of Labour losing control of councils, but often to no overall control rather than any one other party taking control.

Redditch, Hartlepool, Tamworth, Exeter, Tameside, Southampton and Wandsworth are all examples of this.

The Green Party of England and Wales is performing creditably so far. Winning the mayoralty in Hackney in east London is a big moment for them, and they are confident they will make significant gains in Manchester.

The Liberal Democrats are making some gains and can point to taking control of Stockport and Portsmouth councils.

The Conservatives, as expected, are losing ground – not a comfortable position to be in as an opposition party now two years on from a general election.

They are losing about two in five of the seats they are trying to defend.

But they can point to winning Westminster Council back from Labour, denying Labour control of Wandsworth, also in the capital, and seeing off Reform in Bexley.

Turnout is proving to be notably higher than recent local elections. It is, so far, running at 42%, up seven points on 2022.

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