Labour expected to lose Senedd after century of winning elections in Wales

Labour is expected to lose the Senedd election, multiple party sources have told the BBC, ending its 27-year-long rule in Wales.

The party has won Westminster and Cardiff Bay elections in the country for more than a century, but opinion polls have suggested Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are both vying for the top spot.

The Welsh government's deputy first minister, Huw Irranca-Davies, did not concede the election but said it had been "tough" for his party.

Voting closed at 22:00 BST on Thursday and counting takes place on Friday, with full coverage of the results across BBC Wales online, television and radio.

First Minister Eluned Morgan's seat is thought to be under threat, with sources speculating the Welsh Labour leader may not return to the Senedd.

Although a defeat for Labour was widely expected after poor showings in recent opinion polls, a loss in Wales would have political significance of historic proportions.

A former Welsh government minister told BBC Wales that if the results were "as bad as predicted" then UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer should stand down as prime minister.

Both Plaid and Reform have been pitching the election as a two-horse race - encouraging voters to back them over other parties.

For both parties the more seats they win increases their chances of running a government on their own, or making a deal with other parties more straightforward.

No party is likely to reach a majority of 49 of the 96 Senedd seats under Wales' new proportional voting system, although Reform's Welsh leader Dan Thomas said on Tuesday that he thought it was possible for his party to achieve it.

After polls closed on Thursday night, Labour's Irranca-Davies said: "We know this has been a tough election campaign, fought in difficult circumstances.

"After many years in government in Wales, and with Labour now governing across the UK, there was always going to be a strong mood for change and frustration.

"The ongoing pressures people face from the cost of living are real and hurt deeply.

Former Welsh counsel general Mick Antoniw told BBC Wales the election had been the most difficult for Labour "in living memory".

He said it seemed to be "more about Downing Street and immigration than Wales".

"What we have to ensure is that Wales has a progressive and stable government and that almost certainly will require responsible partnership," said Antoniw, who did not seek re-election on Thursday.

Asked whether he thought Sir Keir could continue as prime minister, he said: "If the results are as bad as predicted then there will have to be a change of leadership.

"Not an immediate departure but a planned, orderly and open transition and an open and transparent contest."

Several Welsh Labour MPs have told BBC Wales that they were not expecting a challenge to Sir Keir, despite the mood being described as "at rock bottom" by one frontbencher.

A number of them called for a bolder set of policies and for lessons to be learned.

First Minister Eluned Morgan said consistently during the campaign that Sir Keir was "not on the ballot paper".

But when asked on Wednesday if he could stay on if Labour lost in Wales, she said that she would not be drawn in to "speculation".

Labour sources told BBC Wales throughout the campaign that the prime minister came up negatively with voters on doorsteps.

A "grudging" acknowledgment that he had handled the UK's response to the Iran war well had been soured by the Lord Mandelson saga, they said.

A senior Welsh Labour figure said polling day had been "awful".

"I've never known anything like it. We've been knocking on the doors of people who've consistently voted Labour in the past only to find the vast majority have voted Plaid, Reform, Green or importantly stayed at home," they said.

"The Plaid message 'we're the only party to stop Reform' has really cut through.

"But Reform have also cashed in big time on disillusionment with Keir Starmer and our Labour government."

Nigel Farage kicked off Reform's campaign by saying that the election was a "referendum on Starmer".

A Labour defeat in Wales would have political significance of historic proportions.

One of the founders of the modern Labour party, Keir Hardie was MP for Merthyr Tydfil from 1900 to 1915 and Labour has emerged from every general election as Wales' largest party since 1922.

Labour has also won every Welsh election since the Senedd's predecessor, the National Assembly for Wales, was established in 1999.

It has led every Welsh government since then, controlling the country's policies on health, education, transport and local government, among others.

If the defeat is confirmed, then the party in Wales is likely to undergo a period of soul-searching, lesson-learning and an attempt to find a new direction to win back voters.

However, Labour could yet - depending on Friday's result - end up in talks over a deal with Plaid Cymru and other parties to form the next Welsh government.

The Welsh result is also likely to have an impact on the future of the prime minister as Labour contemplates a challenging set of local elections in England and the election to the Scottish Parliament.

On Thursday night Plaid said it was "proud of the positive and disciplined campaign we have taken to every corner of Wales".

"Throughout this election, we have heard a clear appetite for change. People want a government that will stand up for Wales and focus relentlessly on the key issues affecting their lives," the party said.

Reform UK said: "We're proud to have run a campaign based on putting the Welsh people first."

The Welsh Liberal Democrats hope to return a larger group than in 2021, when the party only saw its leader Jane Dodds elected.

She said: "Whatever the result tonight, our party will continue fighting for stronger local services, a fairer economy and a Wales where every community has the opportunity to thrive."

Additional reporting by Mark Palmer

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