Election analysis - 'A tale of two Labour cities'

This year's local elections in the South West were a tale of two Labour cities.

In Plymouth's case the size of Labour's majority and the fact that only a third of the seats were up for election made it a forgone conclusion that the party would still be running the city on 8 May.

Exeter too was only electing a third, but Labour's small majority there made it obviously vulnerable to just a few seats changing hands.

In the event Exeter did slip into No Overall Control with the Greens taking three of Labour's seats and Reform UK a fourth, while Labour managed to hang onto half the seats it was defending.

The council's Labour leader was quick to say the results were much better than some had been predicting.

And he has a point.

Last year's Devon County Council elections saw all of Labour's Exeter seats snapped up by a combination of the Greens and Reform UK – the two insurgent parties which have been making much of the running in British politics ever since.

And what happens to Labour in Exeter arguably matters far beyond the city's boundaries.

Labour has few established strongholds in the South West but Exeter has been its absolute bedrock over the last few decades through all the party's up and downs.

So if Labour is in trouble in Exeter what does that say about its prospects in other parts of the region where its relationship to power has always been more tenuous?

Like Plymouth, for instance.

There is a strong and longstanding Labour tradition in Plymouth but it waxes and wanes.

This set of results - with Labour losing a great swathe of seats to Reform UK – suggests it's now in the latter phase.

The implications of this for Labour's future in the city are perhaps more significant than the headline loss of its majority in Exeter.

Another eye-catching feature of the night was the turn-out figures.

Local elections often fail to enthuse voters but turn-out in some of the Exeter wards was nudging 50% – an impressively high figure.

At one point during the Exeter count there was audible astonishment in the hall when the turnout was announced.

So whatever you think of the results there's no doubt a lot of people were very keen to shape the democratic process.

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