Will UK petrol and diesel prices start going down?
Getty ImagesMotorists in the UK have faced higher fuel costs due to the US-Israel war with Iran.
Wholesale oil and gas prices surged when the conflict began on 28 February, with the production and transportation of energy across the Middle East slowing or stopping entirely due to missile strikes and drone attacks.
After US president Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire on 7 April, the wholesale price of oil and gas dropped back, but uncertainty in the following days led to further price increases.
According to RAC, prices increased for 40 days in a row up to 10 April, the longest run of consecutive rises on record – but they could start falling soon.
How do wholesale oil prices affect the cost of petrol and diesel at the pump?
Crude oil is a key ingredient in petrol and diesel, meaning higher wholesale costs make filling up a car more expensive.
Analysts say every $10 (£7.53) increase in the oil price pushes up pump prices by roughly 7p a litre.
Since the war began, the price of a barrel of Brent crude - the global benchmark for oil prices - has been very volatile, jumping from $73 (£55) to more than $110.
The cost of filling a typical family car with petrol has gone up by more than £14. A tank of diesel is around £27 more expensive.
The price of petrol and diesel has continued to climb following the announcement of a ceasefire.
On 10 April, the average petrol price was 158.16p a litre. Diesel was 191.31p.
But prices remain well below the levels reached in summer 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when petrol reached 191.5p and diesel hit 199p a litre.
RAC head of policy Simon Williams said prices were expected to start falling soon.
"The rate of price increases has slowed due to oil falling back below $100 for the last two days. This has reduced wholesale costs which should, if sustained, lead to the price of petrol coming down," he said.
"So, as things stand, we really shouldn't see unleaded rise any further for the time being and the record diesel price of 199p now shouldn't be surpassed."
Oil prices quickly fell below $100 when the ceasefire was announced by Trump, but uncertainty over what Iran actually agreed to meant it began to rise again the next day.
Because transporting oil is a slow process, price movements in the wholesale markets take about a fortnight to show at the pump.
Fuel retailers have denied accusations of price gouging during the conflict. The official markets regulator is investigating the issue.
Will oil prices keep falling as the ceasefire takes effect?
For the wholesale markets, the most critical issue remains the status of the Strait of Hormuz.
About 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the waterway, but it has been effectively closed since the war began.
Trump's demands for a two-week ceasefire hinged on Iran reopening the strait, which it agreed to do.
But Iran wants to control the strait permanently, and the US is strongly opposed to this.
BBC Verify analysis shows that as of 10:00 BST on 10 April, only 15 vessels had passed through the waterway following the ceasefire announcement – normally, 138 make the crossing every day.
The continued uncertainty means that oil prices are likely to remain above pre-war levels.
Additionally, oil and gas facilities have been damaged across the Gulf, badly disrupting refining capacity.
The RAC said motorists should not expect cheaper fuel in the short term, but it is hoped that prices will stop rising as fast as they have been.
A new government scheme lets drivers compare the cost of fuel offered by petrol stations across the UK.
As of 8 April, the cheapest petrol in the UK was in a Co-Op in Halesworth, at 149.9p per litre. The cheapest diesel was in Telscombe Service Station in Peacehaven, at 168.9p, according to RegIt.
The most expensive petrol in the UK is currently on sale in Thorn House Filling Station, Cumbria, for 199.9p. The priciest diesel is at RaceTrack Crowwood Gulf outside Glasgow, for 209.9p.
Where does the UK get its oil and gas?
The UK is heavily reliant on oil and gas imports, with the majority coming from the US and Norway.
The price of oil on the global market determines how much the UK pays for it.
Although the UK does get some oil from the North Sea, most of that is exported for refining elsewhere.
Could there be an oil shortage in the UK?
In March, the boss of oil giant Shell warned that there could be a fuel shortage in Europe within weeks because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
His comments came after the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggested a number of measures to reduce energy and fuel use in response to the conflict, including working from home and carpooling.
Oil makes up 35% of the UK's total energy supply, according to the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. As a member of the IEA, the UK must hold 90 days' worth of net oil imports, but currently has more than this.
The UK government said the country's fuel supplies were "resilient", and the Fuels Industry UK body said Britons should carry on as normal.
Some analysts said that restrictions on new drilling licences in the North Sea should be eased to limit price rises for households, but others argued this was unlikely to significantly reduce energy prices for the public.
Will my energy bills rise?
In the short term, millions of UK householders' domestic gas and electricity bills are shielded from any impact on wholesale costs paid by suppliers.
People whose energy bills are covered by the price cap saw their unit costs fall in April, and those will not change until the end of June.
However, depending on whether the ceasefire holds, bills could rise when the next price cap takes effect at the start of July.
Anyone who already has a fixed energy tariff won't see a price rise for the length of their contract. But some suppliers have been pulling cheaper fixed deals for new customers off the market.
Heating oil is used by many households in Northern Ireland, and in some rural areas. The cost of that fluctuates more directly in response to the oil price, so the latest global uncertainty has pushed up bills for those households refilling their tanks.
The government announced a £53m support package to help those affected.
Will this affect UK inflation and interest rates?
The Bank of England moves interest rates to try and keep inflation - the rate at which prices increase - close to its 2% target.
The main CPI rate of inflation was 3% in the year to February 2026, above the Bank's target but well below the 11.1% figure reached in October 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.
After a series of cuts, interest rates stand at 3.75%, the lowest level since February 2023.
Rates had been expected to fall further during 2026. But these predictions were scrapped when the Iran war broke out, with rate increases now thought more likely.
As a result mortgage lenders have increased their own lending rates. Anyone remortgaging or taking out their first mortgage is likely to face higher rates than they would have before the conflict began.
After the ceasefire was announced, analysts at Capital Economics said they thought that UK inflation would peak at 4.5%. The predicted interest rate increases may not materialise if a permanent peace deal is struck, they added.
Additional reporting by Emer Moreau, Kevin Peachey, and Dearbail Jordan
