Scotland's population set to fall due to drop in migration
Getty ImagesScotland's population is set to fall due to an expected drop in international migration, new data shows.
The National Records of Scotland (NRS) previously projected the population would steadily increase over the next 25 years to reach 5.8m by 2047.
But its latest projection suggests the population will peak at 5.56m in 2033, before dropping to 5.47m in 2049.
The NRS said the change is "mainly driven by migration falling from unusually high levels".
A record number of people are currently living in Scotland, topping 5.54m in 2024.
This comes despite deaths outnumbering births in the country since 2015.
This is explained by the fact that more people are moving to Scotland than leaving, with the arrivals from overseas at "historically high" levels.
Immigration has been adding to the country's population for the last 24 years and that trend was projected to continue for the next two decades.
However, NRS has now said a recent drop in estimated international migration by UK data body, the Office for National Statistics, means Scotland's population is projected to be lower.
Latest NRS projections show Scotland's population falling by 1.3% over the 25 years to mid-2049 with the UK population set to grow by 4.5% over the same period.
However, the UK population is projected to grow at a slower rate over the next few decades than previously reported due to lower levels of migration.
Andrew White, head of population and migration statistics at NRS, said: "Our latest projections are lower than the last set of figures. This is mainly driven by migration falling from unusually high levels.
"While we continue to project more people moving to Scotland than leaving, we now anticipate these levels to be too low to completely offset the gap between deaths and births.
"At the same time, we see the number of older people continuing to rise but the number of children and young adults fall."
Projections are not forecasts or predictions and do not take into account what may or may not happen in the future.
But a breakdown of the population projections show the number of people aged 75 and over rising by over 300,000 by mid-2049.
In the same time period, the number of children is projected to fall by almost 166,000, and the number of young adults to drop by more than 157,000.
There have been more deaths than births each year since 2015.
The NRS call the difference between the two "the natural change" and they predict this will continue to widen in the coming decades as people have fewer children and the older population grows.
Immigration and the election campaign
Immigration is not directly an issue for the Scottish Parliament, but it has become one of the most contentious elements of the election campaign.
SNP minister Mairi McAllan has said "too few" migrants are coming to Scotland, and that migration is "good and necessary" for the economy.
But Reform's Thomas Kerr has argued that immigration had pushed the system to breaking point.
Both politicians were speaking during BBC Scotland's The Sunday Show debate about immigration, where the other main parties were split on the issue.
Conservative Stephen Kerr said voters believed that governments did not have a grip on immigration, while the Lib Dems' Christine Jardine and Labour's Michael Marra said immigration was necessary and Patrick Harvie of the Scottish Greens said it was "valuable".
BBC Verify has examined claims made by political leaders about the impact of asylum and migration on housing.
A simple summary of where the main parties stand on immigration, and other key campaign issues, has also been produced by BBC Scotland.
