Argentina World Cup favourites says simulation

Lionel Messi's Argentina are favourites to win the 2026 World Cup according to a university simulation.

Economist Professor James Reade created the simulation at the University of Reading which modelled every match of the 48-team tournament 10,000 times to produce probability estimates for each nation.

Argentina topped the rankings, with France and Spain almost inseparable in second and third, while Brazil and England are closely matched behind.

Reade said: "It has been 60 years since England last lifted the trophy, and the simulation suggests football could finally be coming home."

The model estimates each nation's attacking and defensive strength from all international matches played since January 2023.

Some nations have played as few as 36 matches in that period, others up to 100.

The model accounts for this imbalance and also builds in a home advantage factor for matches not played at neutral venues.

It generates expected goals for both teams and draws outcomes from a statistical distribution to determine the result.

Reade said: "Argentina come out on top, but what stands out most from this simulation is how tight it is at the summit.

"France and Spain are virtually indistinguishable in the model, and England aren't far behind either."

He said: "What also jumps out is the contrast between sides.

"Germany's defensive numbers are notably weaker than in previous cycles, while Portugal have one of the strongest attacking ratings in the whole field."

"The model goes beyond simple rankings by estimating each team's attacking and defensive strength individually, which gives a much richer picture," he added.

At the 2010 World Cup in South Africa a German aquarium got Paul the octopus to predict match results and he correctly chose the winner throughout the tournament including the eventual winner Spain.