Scottish independence referendum 'a million miles away' - Offord

The leader of Reform UK in Scotland has said support for independence is "a million miles away" from the level required to justify a second referendum.

The Scottish government last week published its draft independence referendum bill, setting out the details of the proposed question and who would be allowed to vote.

But Malcolm Offord told BBC Radio Scotland's Mornings programme that there would need to be a "groundswell" of support for a fresh poll.

In 2014 Scotland voted against becoming an independent country by 55% to 45%.

Successive UK governments have opposed any further referendums and Downing Street recently said a new vote was "off limits".

During a phone-in, a listener asked what provision a Reform government would make to allow any of the UK nations to hold a binding referendum on their future within the union.

Asked by presenter Stephen Jardine what needed to happen to make that possible, Offord replied: "I think there needs to be evidence the Scottish people want to leave."

The West Scotland MSP said two million people voted to stay in the UK in 2014 while 1.6m voted to leave.

Offord added: "If you track that 1.6m - which was effectively SNP plus Green votes - if you look at that block of voters in the 2021 Holyrood election, that was 1.3m.

"And now, in this most recent election 2026 Holyrood election, that is down to below a million.

"So if you have less than a million people out of a 4.3 million electorate that is mandate, perhaps, to run the country but not a mandate to break up the country."

Challenged on what would constitute a mandate, Offord said: "Common sense would say it needs to be more than two million people.

"If two million people voted to stay then it has to be more two million people that want to leave.

"That sets a bar from 2014."

The former Conservative peer said the SNP was a "long way off" having enough support to justify a referendum.

Offord said the late SNP leader Alex Salmond boosted SNP support from 30% to 45%.

Offord said: "When he handed it over to Nicola Sturgeon he might have been entitled to say: 'Right, it's your turn to take it from 45 to 60%'.

"If that had happened, and got to 60% consistently, that changes the mood music.

"That means that more than two million people want to leave. We are a million miles away from there."

Offord, who led Reform to a Scottish Parliament breakthrough in May with 17 seats, said there was no appetite to hold a referendum 12 years after the last one.

He added "Where we are right now there is no groundswell, there is no momentum behind Scotland separating.

"If that were to change in the future then, no doubt, there would be a case made to look at that again.

"But, right now, there is no case being made."

The first minister last week confirmed the proposed ballot paper for a second referendum would ask: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" and voters would mark an "X" against options Yes or No.

The draft bill would be introduced into parliament if the Scottish government secured approval from the UK government.

It would include a date for the referendum once it was put before Holyrood.

The SNP had promised to publish the draft legislation in their first 100 days in government after the Scottish election in May.

Swinney said: "The world has changed fundamentally since 2014. So has the UK, and so has Scotland.

"Scotland is ready. The Scottish people are ready. It is time the UK government delivered."

In line with current legislation, registered voters over the age of 16, as well as qualifying foreign nationals, would be able to vote in a second referendum.

Earlier this year, Prof Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University said Scotland remained "more or less divided down the middle on the subject".

He added: "Sometimes yes is a little ahead of no, sometimes it's the other way around. Yes is typically stronger than it was in the actual referendum."

Prime Minister Andy Burnham met Swinney ahead of the Commonwealth Games opening ceremony in Glasgow in July,

Afterwards a Downing Street statement said: "The prime minister stated up front that another referendum on independence was off limits because it would take our focus away from growing the economy and helping families with the cost of living."