Thousands could unknowingly have diabetes as cases rise faster than predicted

Cases of diabetes in Wales are climbing faster than projected, new NHS data has revealed.

The number of people with diabetes was predicted to top 260,000 by 2035, but recent growth suggests that figure could be reached far sooner.

Public Health Wales (PHW) said one in five adults in Wales has diabetes or pre-diabetes, though it is estimated tens of thousands are undiagnosed.

If left unmanaged it can lead to serious complications including sight loss, kidney disease, nerve damage and cardiovascular disease.

Type 2 diabetes has a close association with obesity as well as deprivation.

The condition also disproportionately affects people from South Asian, Black African and Black Caribbean backgrounds.

Data from Stats Wales in 2025 showed 230,371 people aged 17 and over in Wales were living with diabetes, with type 2 diabetes accounting for around 90% of cases.

That represents a 3.5% rise on 2024 and significantly outpaces projections made by PHW.

A further 269,747 people in Wales are thought to be living with pre-diabetes, which is when your blood glucose levels are above the normal range but not high enough to be diagnosed with diabetes.

Dr Amir Ghanghro, a GP with a special interest in diabetes, said nationally practices would expect to see around 5% of patients with diabetes.

However, his own clinic in one of the most diverse parts of Cardiff has around 10% of patients with diabetes.

He said the condition presented differently among the South Asian population.

"They develop diabetes at a younger age group, at lower BMIs or lower weights and the disease they get is more aggressive," he said, adding he recently diagnosed a 17-year-old boy.

Ghangro said a lot of effort had been made by Muslim Doctors Cymru and PHW to identify patients early by holding sessions in mosques and even a cash and carry, adding that long hours or roles in the night-time economy made it harder to access health services.

But he said taking "point of care" glucose tests to community events was expensive.

Ghanghro said "cultural competence" was also essential when having candid conversations with patients.

During one of his clinic sessions, he saw 70-year-old Mahmood Hassan, who has had diabetes for around 30 years.

They weaved in and out of Urdu and English to discuss Hassan's latest results and how he is coping with chronic kidney disease, which is a complication of diabetes.

"My sister is diabetic, my wife is - there's a lot in my family," said Hassan.

"So I do tell my sons and daughters to look after themselves - to do more walking and less sweets."

• Diabetes is a condition that causes your blood glucose (sugar) level to become too high.
• It is caused by your body not making enough or any of a hormone called insulin or the insulin not working properly.
• Common symptoms include feeling thirsty all the time, peeing more than usual, feeling very tired and losing weight without trying.
• Type 1 diabetes is often diagnosed in childhood, though you can get it at any age and it cannot be prevented.
• Type 2 diabetes can sometimes be prevented or stopped with lifestyle changes or treatment. Some people are at higher risk due to ethnicity, age or obesity.

Source: NHS

Dr Sarah Thomas is a GP in Ely, Cardiff, and the national clinical lead for diabetes in primary care.

She said there was a particular growth in those under-40 developing the condition.

"We're seeing people in their 20s and 30s developing type 2 diabetes and this is a particular concern because they are at significant lifetime risk of complications.

"I see loads of shame and stigma associated with both type 2 diabetes and people living with overweight and obesity," she said.

"People don't want to talk about it, they don't want to have those conversations, they feel they're to blame, and it's just not the case.

"I want to really emphasise that it is not people's fault."

She said the growing popularity of medications like Ozempic and Mounjaro to help with weight loss could help explain why diabetes growth in the United States was showing signs of levelling off.

But she said these medications were not as widely used here in Wales and were also not the solution for everyone.

"I use them widely for my patients living with type 2 diabetes, and for the right people, they can be extremely effective - they are a tool in our toolbox.

"I do not think they are the solution to the prevention of type 2 diabetes in Wales. They'll form a part of that for certain, but I think we need to have a much more holistic approach to prevention of type 2 diabetes."

David Taylor, from PHW's Tackling Diabetes Together Programme, said he urged people to know their risk.

"Once a person knows their risk and acts, in some people we can prevent the development of type 2 diabetes and that's a very powerful message."