El Niño likely to cause wetter and warmer-than-normal autumn

The UK is set for wetter and warmer-than-normal weather this autumn, driven by a strengthening El Niño, according to the latest forecasts from the Met Office.

The climate phenomenon - forecast to be the strongest in living memory - will influence a change to stormier conditions later this season.

Potential wetter weather will put areas of the UK gripped by drought on the road to recovery, but it could also bring an increased chance of flooding as a result.

An already warming climate, paired with unusually high sea temperatures around the UK, will also contribute to above-average temperatures.

A stormy season is forecast for the UK with the chances of wet and windy weather higher than normal, particularly from November.

"The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events," Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk said.

El Niño - or the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean - is continuing to strengthen and is expected peak in November or December as a historic event.

However, it is just one of several factors that could affect the UK's weather.

"While this event may become one of the strongest El Niño events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK," he added.

A wetter outlook for late autumn and into winter will bring some relief to parched regions for the UK.

While the weather has recently turned more unsettled, there has so far been no change to the drought status, according to the Environment Agency (EA) National Drought Group, which met on Thursday.

Helen Wakeham, Director of Water at the EA said "drought recovery is a very long process" and only over once reservoirs, rivers and groundwater supplies are back to normal.

While the rainfall will be welcome, it is possible the UK could experience another round of "weather whiplash" where the pattern moves from one extreme to another.

A similar scenario played out in 2025 when the UK experienced a summer of record-breaking heat followed by storms and floods in the autumn.

Autumn is also likely to be warmer than normal, according to the Met Office.

It comes after summer 2026 was provisionally declared the hottest on record, following five widespread heatwaves and 40 days of temperatures above 30C (86F).

While a warmer-than-normal autumn is is consistent with global warming trends, the higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures around the UK will also have an influence.

The series of extreme heatwaves since late spring resulted in marine heatwaves, where sea surface temperatures have risen up to 5C above normal.

Warmer seas around the UK tend to keep land temperatures higher than they would otherwise normally be.

While it is unlikely the UK will see any snowfall this autumn, it is still too early to say if the winter will be especially cold or snowy.

El Niño years do bring an enhanced chance of cold and snowy weather in late winter across north-west Europe. However, the UK's position on the edge of the Atlantic complicates this.

Other meteorological influences can prevent the northerly or easterly winds that bring colder air.

Looking back at previous winters that followed a strong El Niño since 1900, just one - the winter of 1982/83 - saw widespread disruptive snow.