Monthly Outlook

There will be a lot of dry weather through to later in July and temperatures are most likely to stay above average but there will be decreasing chances of excessive heat.

A changeable period and modest cooling may occur by early August, although temperatures should stay above or at least near normal.

Hot in parts of the south. Cooler east & north

Further 30 degree heat should occur through the middle of the week in parts of southern and central England and eastern Wales, but the north and east will be closer to normal due to an east to north-easterly breeze. Most of the UK will stay dry but there is the chance of a shower over Scotland and in south-western England, where an isolated thunderstorm is also possible.

The second half of the week should see temperatures easing as high pressure becomes centred to the west of the UK to induce more of a northerly flow of winds. Temperatures will remain near to normal in the northern UK and above to well above in the south, where some areas are still going to reach the upper 20s Celsius. Conditions are going to stay mostly dry, aside from the odd isolated shower or some patchy drizzle for northern Scotland.

Still drier and warmer than normal in many areas

Initially high pressure should remain centred to the west, and it will continue to exert its influence on the UK through later July. As a result, there should still be plenty of dry weather but there could be just a little patchy rain working its way southwards at times, chiefly across Scotland and Northern Ireland and over eastern regions.

As time goes by high pressure should more firmly shift eastwards over the UK, although its exact position is uncertain. However, it should continue to promote mostly dry conditions. If high pressure were to be align a bit farther north, then continental low pressure might be able to edge farther north. That would bring a chance of sharp showers breaking out across southern regions. By the end of the period there are signs that high pressure may begin to weaken which could allow more rain into at least far northern areas.

After further high heat in some southern regions, temperatures should ease a notch by the end of the period, although they are still likely to be above average in most places.

Changeable. Temperatures still above or near normal

From the end of July into the start of August there are conflicting and weak signals for the pressure pattern. Most probably high pressure will shift to become centred more to the south-west, occasionally extending a ridge across the UK. However, it should weaken enough at times to allow Atlantic low pressure and frontal systems to bring periodic bands of rain, interspersed with brighter but showery episodes.

Wettest conditions are likely t be across Scotland, while precipitation amounts across southern England may stay below average, although not persistently dry, with chances of occasional rain bands or showers. Some rather hot days are still possible in the south, and despite the rain chances temperatures elsewhere should overall be above or at least near normal.

There is a possibility that high pressure will be weaker, though, making for a wetter and less warm period across wider areas.

In Friday's outlook we will see if there is any clearer signal for a potentially wetter period, and we'll take a look further into August.