How similar will the table look at the end of the season?
- Published
Just five games in, it might seem a bit early to pay much attention to the Premier League table - but it's probably more settled than you think.
If we look at the Premier League after five games last season and where teams ultimately ended up, the final table was already starting to take shape as 13 of the 20 sides finished within four places of where they sat even at this early stage (65%).
Eventual champions Arsenal were second, Sunderland were already seventh - where they finished eight months later - and two of the three sides that were relegated were already in the bottom three.
The eventual champions have been in the top two at this point in the past four campaigns, suggesting - potential punishments aside - it will be Manchester City or Arsenal that lifts the trophy.
The top end of the table overall has sometimes settled surprisingly quickly in recent years. The top eight after five games in 2024-25 finished as the top eight at the end of that season (although not in the same order), while the top six in 2019-20 and top seven in 2016-17 were also in place at this early stage.
While being top after five games has not meant much in recent seasons, being bottom certainly has.
Tottenham could well be in trouble once again as the side bottom of the Premier League after five games has been relegated in six of the past seven seasons.
Being bottom this early did not used to be such a bad omen. Between 2013-14 and 2018-19, only one of the six sides that were propping up the table after five games ended up going down - Newcastle in 2015-16 - while Crystal Palace finished as high as 11th in 2017-18.
Looking at the relegation battle more broadly, at least one of the teams in the bottom three at this stage has been relegated in the past eight seasons - so one of Tottenham, Fulham and Coventry City are very likely to be heading to the Championship in May.
The pool of contestants for this season's relegation battle may already be decided too because the three sides that ultimately went down in the past three seasons were all in the bottom six after five games, which would add Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace to the mix.
The last sides to be outside the bottom six at this point but relegated were Leeds United and Southampton in 2022-23, who were both in the top half (seventh and ninth). With their teams currently in eighth and 11th place, Hull City and Ipswich Town fans will hope that is still the case at the end of this campaign.
While the season may well have barely begun, the Premier League table is already starting to take shape.
