Afar sababood oo ka hortagi kara xabbad joojin waarta oo dhex marta Iran iyo Maraykanka

Heshiiskii xabbad-joojinta ee u dhexeeyay Maraykanka iyo Iran, kaas oo la gaaray bilowgii bishii Abriil, hadda waxa la odhan karaa waxa uu qarka u saaran yahay inuu burburo kadib silsilad weerarro ah oo ka dhacay gobolka Bariga Dhexe.

Madaxweynaha Maraykanka Donald Trump iyo mas'uul sare oo Iran ah ayaa bilowgii Abriil is dhaafsaday hanjabaado, waxayna sidoo kale ku gooddiyeen inay sii wadi doonaan tallaabooyinka ka dhanka ah midba midka kale kadib is-weydaarsiga weerarrada.

Arbacadii, Maraykanku wuxuu sheegay inuu weerar ku qaaday qalab ururin xogeed oo Iran leedahay kadib markii Iran ay soo ridday mid ka mid ah diyaaradaha helikobtarrada milatari ee Maraykanka ee gobolka Gacanka.

Ciidamada Ilaalada Kacaanka Iran ayaa iyaguna ka jawaabay iyaga oo weeraray saldhigyo milatari oo Maraykanku ku leeyahay Baxrayn iyo Urdun, hase yeeshee Kuwait waxay sheegtay inay qabatay qaar ka mid ah weerarradaas.

Soo noqoshada dagaalku waxay timid maalmo kadib markii Iran ay gantaallo ku weerartay Israa'iil Axaddii, taas oo keentay in Israa'iil ay jawaab celin ku qaaddo weerarro ka dhan ah galbeedka iyo bartamaha Iran—taas oo noqotay markii ugu horreysay ee si toos ah loo is-weydaarsado rasaas tan iyo heshiiskii xabbad-joojinta ee hore loo gaaray.

Trump wuxuu ugu baaqay labada dhinac inay joojiyaan weerarrada ay isku hayaan.

In kasta oo uu markii dambe sheegay inuu hakiyay, haddana bilowgii Madaxweynaha Maraykanka Donald Trump wuxuu sheegay "Iran waxay dhadhamin doontaa waxa ay sameysay," isaga oo aan faahfaahin dheeraad ah bixin. Wuxuu sidoo kale sheegay in "Iran si buuxda looga adkaaday," balse ay u muuqato hadal kaliya oo afka laga sheegay.

Arrintan waxay timid kadib markii Wasiirka Arrimaha Dibadda Iran, Abbas Araghchi, uu ka digay in dalkiisu "ka jawaabi doono weerar kasta oo lagu soo qaado," isagoo sheegay in "Maraykanku uu ku guuldarreystay goobta dagaalka."

Waxa ay gaartay heer ay ku dhowdahay in dhammaan dhinacyadii ku lug lahaa dagaalka ay iska indha-tiraan shuruudihii heshiiska, iyadoo la muujinayo walaac ah in sii socoshada xiisadda u dhexeysa Maraykanka iyo Iran ay burburin karto rajadii laga qabay in la gaaro nabad waarta oo u dhexeysa labada dal.

Haddaba, maxay tahay sababta ay labada dhinac ugu guuldarreysteen inay ixtiraamaan heshiiskii xabbad-joojinta? Waa kuwan afar sababood oo ay bixiyeen khubaradu.

1. Hishiiskii xabbad-joojinta oo ku adkaa Iran

Mid ka mid ah sababaha waa in heshiisku "uusan xallin sababta ugu weyn ee khilaafka," sida uu sheegay Sina Toossi, oo ah cilmi-baadhe sare oo ka tirsan xarunta istaraatiijiyadda caalamiga ah ee Washington, Maraykanka.

Wuxuu tilmaamay horumarka Israa'iil ay ka sameysay weerarrada milatari ee Lubnaan, iyo sidoo kale cadaadiska milatari iyo dhaqaale ee Maraykanku uu sii wado inuu saaro Iran, oo ay ku jiraan cunaqabataynta iyo xannibaadda marinnada ganacsiga badda ee dalka.

Talaadadii, Israa'iil waxay weerar ku qaadday magaalada Tyre ee koonfurta Lubnaan, maalin kadib markii Iran ay Israa'iil ka codsatay inay joojiso weerarrada.

Tehran waxay arrintan u aragtaa xeelad dagaal oo sii socota, halkaas oo dhinacyadu ay sii wadaan falal militari inkasta oo aanay rabin in dagaalku si buuxda u fido—arrin ay hoggaamiyeyaasha Iran ku tilmaamaan mid "aan la aqbali karin," sida uu sheegay Toossi.

Wuxuu sidoo kale sheegay in Iran ay ka walaacsan tahay haddii Maraykanku si fudud u sii wado weerarrada ka dhanka ah xulafada gobolka, ay taasi keeni karto in uu sii socdo saameyn-dhimista Iran ee gobolka si tartiib tartiib ah.

Khubarradu waxay sidoo kale sheegeen in hoggaamiyeyaasha Iran ay la kulmayaan cadaadis ah inaysan aqbalin heshiis xabbad-joojin ah oo siinaya cadowgooda faa'iido militari iyo dhaqaale, halka Iran ay si taxaddar leh u dhaqmeyso.

2. Doorka ay Israa'iil ka ciyaarayso

Khubarrada ayaa u arka in tallaabooyinka Israa'iil ay sii adkeeyeen dadaallada lagu hirgelinayo heshiiska xabbad-joojinta.

Sida uu sheegay David H. Hellyer, oo ah cilmi-baare sare oo ka tirsan xarun cilmi-baaris oo ku taalla Maraykanka balse ka hawlgasha Biritain, Israa'iil waxay danaynaysaa in aan la gaarin wax heshiis ah oo Iran siinaya saameyn goboleed. Wuxuu Israa'iil ku tilmaamay mid si joogto ah u carqaladeysa dadaallada diblomaasiyadda ee Maraykanka.

Sida uu sheegay, Israa'iil waxay "burburisaa heshiis kasta," ma aha oo kaliya midka Maraykanku dadaalka ku bixinayo diblomaasiyadda, balse guud ahaan dadaallada lagu raadinayo xal nabadeed.

Waxaa jira dood ku saabsan inta jeer ee Israa'iil ay ka hor timaadday amarrada Madaxweyne Trump, oo hore uga digay in aanay weerar ku qaadin Iran Axaddii la soo dhaafay.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, khubarro dhanka milatariga ah ayaa sheegaya in Israa'iil aysan gebi ahaanba ku tiirsanayn kaalmada milatari ee Maraykanka marka ay timaaddo dagaal muddo dheer socda oo ay la gasho Iran.

Yehoshua Kalisky, oo ah cilmi-baare sare oo ka tirsan xarun daraasado amni oo Israa'iil ku taalla, ayaa sheegay in "aysan jirin wax shaki ah in Israa'iil aysan keligeed dagaal geli karin."

Sidoo kale Danny Orbach ayaa sheegay in aanay jirin heshiis lala galo Iran oo gebi ahaanba iska indhatiraya danaha Israa'iil, isagoo tilmaamay in haddii heshiis xabbad-joojin ahi uu ka hor yimaado danaha waaweyn ee Israa'iil, ay suuragal tahay inay carqaladeyso.

Wareysi taleefan oo uu siiyay BBC, Trump wuxuu beeniyay in Benjamin Netanyahu uu ka hormaray amarkiisa, inkasta oo uu hore uga digay in taxaddar la muujiyo.

3. Soo noqoshada dagaalka si xeeladeysan

Tani waxay u muuqataa sida dagaal si tartiib ah ugu soo laabanaya gudaha qaabkii xabbad-joojinta.

Inkastoo cadaadis militari oo xooggan oo Maraykanka iyo Israa'iil saareen Iran, iyo sidoo kale cunaqabatayno iyo xannibaado lagu sameeyay marinnada ganacsiga, haddana hoggaanka Iran ma muujin wax dabacsanaan ah. Nidaamka amniga gudaha ee dalka ayaa weli si adag u taagan, halka rajooyinkii ay qabaan qaar ka mid ah cadawgeeda ee ahaa in gudaha Iran qalalaase ka dhaco aysan rumoobin.

Falanqeeyayaashu waxay u arkaan in tani ay xoojisay adkaysiga Iran. Halkii ay ka dooran lahayd inay ka fogaato iska horimaad toos ah, Iran waxay u muuqataa mid rumaysan in ay awood u leedahay inay iska caabiso cadaadiskaas.

Sidaas darteed, Iran waxay hadda u muuqataa mid awood u leh inay si kalsooni leh u wajahdo xaaladda, isla markaana ay xitaa isku dayayso inay qeexdo shuruudo ay ku maareyso xiisadda iyo xiriirka ay la leedahay dhinacyada kale.

4. Xaddidaadda awoodda Maraykanka

Waxa ugu dambeeya waa doorka ay Maraykanku ka ciyaarayso—iyo awoodda ay rabto inay adeegsato.

Maraykanka, oo ah taageeraha ugu weyn ee Israa'iil dhinaca milatariga, wuxuu siiya hub, dhaqaale iyo taageero diblomaasiyadeed, taas oo ka dhigaysa mid si weyn ugu lug leh xiisadda.

David H. Hellyer ayaa sheegay in "haddii Maraykanku rabo in Israa'iil ay beddesho jihadeeda, uu awood u leeyahay inuu sidaas sameeyo." Wuxuu intaas ku daray in xitaa yaraynta taageerada milatari ay noqon karto fariin adag oo wax ka beddeli karta dhaqanka Israa'iil.

Wuxuu yiri: "Haddii ay diiddo inay adeegsato awooddaas, waxay la macno tahay in ay oggolaatay xaaladda jirta. Awood ayay leedahay, balse ma muujinayso rabitaan ay ku isticmaasho."

Halka ay khatartu ka sii socon karto

Falanqeeyayaashu waxay ka digayaan in xaaladaha noocan ah ay ka dhigi karaan in la gaaro nabad waarta mid aad u adag.

Hadda, dad badan ayaa u arka in diblomaasiyaddu tahay waddada ugu habboon ee xal lagu gaari karo.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, David H. Hellyer ayaa ka digay in haddii "diblomaasiyadda loo adeegsado si qarsoodi ah oo ay la socoto diyaar-garow militari," Iran ay beddeli karto istaraatiijiyaddeeda, taasoo ka dhigi karta in weerar celin kasta ay noqoto mid aad u khatar badan.