The "big pay off" from the SpaceX rocket crashing into the Moon will come in around a week's time, according to an astronomer.

Dr Matt Bothwell, astronomer at the University of Cambridge, tells BBC Breakfast this is when a lunar orbital satellite will pass the crash site and scientists will be able to create before and after pictures of the crater.

Bothwell adds that the collision is a "nice little neat experiment on the Moon", but warns that space is becoming more crowded with space debris - human-made objects in orbit around the Earth.

"It could feasibly be within a few decades hard to get past Earth's orbit because space is so crowded. It's called space debris and we should absolutely worry about it," he says.

Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent

None of the spacecraft orbiting the Moon were positioned to capture the collision live, so the first job for scientists is simply comparing before-and-after pictures of the surface to spot the new scar, a process that itself takes time to plan and execute.

South Korea's Danuri orbiter had the best chance of catching something close to real time, having passed near the impact site shortly beforehand, but its team has told Korean news outlets that any footage will only be released once analysis by research institutes is complete, with no fixed date given.

NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will be in position to photograph the site over the coming days.

Meanwhile, ground telescopes in the Americas, where it was still dark, had the best shot at catching the brief flash and dust plume, but turning raw detections into confirmed, cleaned-up images typically takes hours, and sometimes days, as scientists check the data for accuracy.

Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent

According to the scientists studying this impact, the SpaceX rocket should by now have crashed into the Moon.

The crash will be confirmed by telescopes in the Americas monitoring the event.

We'll bring you more on the collision as we get it.

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

SpaceX's Falcon 9 is a reusable, two-stage rocket designed and manufactured for, what the company calls "the reliable and safe transport of people and payloads into Earth orbit and beyond".

This specific rocket was launched as part of a US and Japanese mission to carry a pair of lunar landers and scientific equipment to the Moon last year.

Part of the Falcon 9 is reusable and designed to return back to Earth for its next mission. But some parts of the rocket are shed in space and remain there, stuck in orbit unless they eventually collide with another celestial body.

According to Nasa's Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the upper stage (section) of one of rockets will "impact" the Moon.

The US space agency reached the conclusion after independent astronomers, using public data, noted that a portion of the rocket from a January 2025 launch was on an accidental collision course with the Moon.

The piece in question is about the size of a five-storey building, with a weight on Earth of at least 4,000kg.

Image source, Reuters

The SpaceX object will land near the Einstein crater, which is on the part of the Moon that receives daylight and is visible from Earth, according to astronomer Bill Gray.

But experts say ordinary eyes on Earth will not be able to see the impact itself.

Instead, people with access to a sophisticated telescope may be able to see a flash radiating off the Moon's surface.

Big telescopes in the Americas, plus Nasa's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea's Danuri probe, will track the flash, plume and new crater, and a citizen‑science project is signing up keen amateurs to film the impact too.

By catching the dust plume in action, astronomers hope to turn this accidental crash into a useful experiment.

The fact we know this is happening, ahead of time, is exciting for scientistspublished at 07:11 BST

07:11 BST

Libby Jackson
Head of space at the Science Museum

This commission is exciting for scientists, because we know it's happening, and we know the speed and the mass of the rocket stage that will crash into the Moon.

We don't normally know that for meteors that crash into the Moon every day.

That means scientists will have a lot more information as they study the debris that will be caused by the collision.

By studying the light that is reflected from that material, scientists can determine its composition - helping them understand how the Moon has developed and how planetary systems evolved and were formed billions of years ago.

The collision between the Moon and a drifting SpaceX rocket is not thought to be dangerous, including to Earth, according to experts.

Nasa spokesperson Jimi Russel says while Nasa will continue to observe the site of impact for scientific purposes, "there is no danger to Earth".

Nasa scientists are planning to collect lunar data from the event and refine techniques for tracking objects in space.

"It's something really huge smashing into the Moon. It's not remotely dangerous, we can just watch the show," says Dr Matt Bothwell, public astronomer at the University of Cambridge.

Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent

The story began in January last year, when a Falcon 9 rocket blasted off from Florida carrying two lunar landers into space.

The rocket's job was to fire its upper stage hard enough to send both landers out of Earth orbit and onto a path towards the Moon, and it succeeded.

But the spent stage was left drifting in a long, looping orbit that swung it out towards the Moon and back again.

Over the following 18 months, the gentle gravitational tug of the Earth, Moon and Sun - along with even the faint push of sunlight itself - gradually altered its path.

Astronomers tracking the object eventually worked out that those small nudges had put it on a course toward the Moon, picking up speed by the day and heading for an almighty crash.

Image source, AFP via Getty Images

A stray piece of a SpaceX rocket that has been hurtling in orbit at around 2.43 kilometres per second (about 5,400mph) is expected to collide with the Moon.

It's the upper section of a Falcon 9 spacecraft, about the size of a five-storey building and weighing at least 4,000kg.

The collision, according to US space agency Nasa, is predicted to happen at about 07:35 BST.

Experts say it will not be visible from Earth with the naked eye, but people with access to a sophisticated telescope may be able to see a flash radiating off the Moon's surface.

It is also not thought to be dangerous - including to Earth - with scientists instead considering this to be a unique opportunity to study what happens when an object hits the Moon.

Stick with us as we bring you the latest updates and expert analysis on what this all means.