Burnham's victory in Makerfield has shown he can beat Reformpublished at 14:28 BST

14:28 BST

Nick Eardley and Henry Zeffman
Political correspondent and chief political correspondent

Image source, EPA

Labour MPs argue the problem isn't necessarily the party, it's the man at the top. They believe the prime minister is personally unpopular - and that it is Sir Keir Starmer who is holding his party back.

The result of the Makerfield by-election looks set to be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Andy Burnham's victory wasn't even close - he beat Reform comfortably. For Labour MPs despairing about how they take the fight to Nigel Farage's party, they now have a leadership contender who can argue he has a track record of doing exactly that.

Dozens of MPs had already said Starmer should quit. That list has grown since Thursday, with senior cabinet ministers adding their voices privately.

The fact that it is known that ministers including Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander have told the prime minister to go and yet they remain in their jobs speaks volumes about how Starmer's authority has collapsed.

Burnham is now the overwhelming favourite to be the UK's next prime minister.

If Starmer does resign in the coming days, the next question is whether there is any contest at all.

Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, always said he would stand. But his allies are now saying there should be conversations between candidates for No 10 about what the future looks like.

There are some hints a deal could be struck (even if Team Streeting are saying for now that their position hasn't changed).

• Read the rest of the analysis here.

Image source, Trafford Council

While Andy Burnham's victory in the Makerfield by-election on Thursday has opened up a path for him to challenge Keir Starmer as Labour leader, it has also left a vacuum in his former role as Greater Manchester mayor.

The Green Party has named Trafford councillor Geraldine Coggins as their candidate for the contest, looking to build on their success in the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year.

Coggins told supporters at a launch event in Manchester it was a straight contest between the Greens and Nigel Farage's Reform UK as she pledged to improve transport, housing and choose "people and planet over profits".

The mayoral election is scheduled to take place on 30 July, with Labour set to announce its candidate on Friday.

Throughout our coverage, we have been referring to Andy Burnham's win in the Makerfield by-election, where he took 24,927 votes.

Here is a reminder of how the victory went down, in numbers:

• More than 45,500 votes were cast in the Makerfield by-election
• That equates to 58.8% of the constituency. It's the first time since 1982 that a by-election turnout was greater than that of the previous general election (52.5% in 2024)

• Burnham secured 55% of the vote overall - and increased Labour's vote share by 10 percentage points
• 15,696 votes - or 35% - went to Reform UK, bumping the party's vote share by three percentage points
• Newcomers Restore Britain received 3,111 votes - or 7%
• 997 votes went to the Conservatives, 308 to the Greens and 163 to the Lib Dems

As the day dawned to an Andy Burnham victory in Makerfield on Friday, Prime Minister Starmer congratulated the man who has set his sights on No 10 while later asserting he would fight any challenge to his leadership.

Today, the mood at the top of government has changed. Here's how we got here:

• Andy Burnham wins Makerfield just after 03:00 BST on Friday by a significant margin and declares "this is a final chance to change" in a message to Labour
• At approximately 06:00, Starmer congratulates Burnham. Later he warns a leadership race would plunge the country into "chaos", repeating he would contest any race. He also urges Labour to "pull together as a party and a movement"
• Allies of Burnham and Wes Streeting, another leadership contender, tell the BBC neither will make public appearances over the weekend, in an apparent bid to give the PM room to decide his future
• In a conversation with the PM, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander suggests he set out a timetable to leave office, the BBC is told. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is also understood to be urging him to set out a plan to resign
• On Sunday morning, No 10 responds to reports suggesting Starmer could resign as soon as Monday, saying he's "getting on with the job"
• Business Secretary Peter Kyle tells the BBC Starmer is making time this weekend to reflect on the "political realities", saying he had a "thoughtful conversation" with the PM on Friday - though he did not say Starmer would resign

Nick Eardley and Henry Zeffman
Political correspondent and chief political correspondent

Image source, No 10 Downing Street

The signs are growing that tomorrow could see the prime minister set out a plan to stand down.

Sir Keir Starmer has always insisted he will not walk away and will fight any leadership challenge. But the mood in government has shifted in the past 48 hours.

Several government insiders now think that the prime minister could announce a timetable to quit - as soon as Monday.

The signs were clear that things are moving quickly in what Business Secretary Peter Kyle told the BBC this morning.

The prime minister, he said, would do "what is in the best interests of the country".

Starmer, he added, was reflecting on the challenges he faces and political realities.

The challenges for the prime minister have been steadily growing for some time.

• You can read the rest of the article here.

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

The result of Thursday's Makerfield by-election has led to a growing number of MPs within the Labour Party calling on Keir Starmer to resign, including figures within his own cabinet.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander held a conversation with the prime minister on Friday following Andy Burnham's victory, with the BBC being told she suggested Starmer set out a timetable to leave office.

It is also understood that Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told the Labour leader to draft exit plans, while Business Secretary Peter Kyle told BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that there is clear "political uncertainty" and Burnham "could be one of those people" with the talent to lead Labour.

The latest set of comments from Starmer's frontbenchers came after ministers such as Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband urged the PM to set out a resignation timetable following Labour's poor performance in the May elections.

Starmer's senior ministers are scheduled to meet for the weekly cabinet meeting on Tuesday, though some believe the leader's departure could come as soon as Monday.

Has a leadership challenge been triggered?

No - and the timing of any possible challenge is still unclear.

Will the prime minister stand?

Party leaders are automatically on the ballot paper unless they resign. On Friday, Keir Starmer said he "will stand" in any contest.

Who are the possible contenders?

Much of the talk has focused on Andy Burnham and former Health Secretary Wes Streeting.

Angela Rayner is favoured by some on the left of the party, while former armed forces minister Al Carns has hinted he could also enter a leadership race.

BBC Wales News

By Nick Bourne

Welsh Labour MP Tonia Antoniazzi told BBC Radio Wales' Sunday Supplement that voters "want to see change".

"Let's be honest, Keir is a very, very decent man but the country, and Wales especially, is crying out for change," she said earlier.

The Gower MP said a "divide" had been created in the Senedd following May's Welsh Parliament elections, which saw Labour - which had been in power since 1999 - beaten into third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform.

"I'm not pro-Burnham, pro-Wes, pro-anybody. I just need the change. We need the change," Antoniazzi said.

"I would like to see a leader that takes us up to the next general election and gives us a good foundation in which to win and be in power for another five years and, sadly, that person isn't Keir."

Image source, PA Media

Cabinet minister Peter Kyle told Laura Kuenssberg earlier the prime minister is making time this weekend to reflect on "political rallies" ahead of an expected challenge to his job.

Being Father's Day today, Keir Starmer has made clear on X this morning he's also making time think about another important topic.

"Being a dad is my greatest joy. Today, I’m thinking about my dad, and the father I am to my children because of him. Happy Father’s Day," he says.

Starmer told BBC Radio 4's Desert Island Discs in 2020 that he didn't often talk about his father, Rod, who died in 2018.

At the time he spoke of his regret at not being close to his late father, who he described as a "difficult" and "complicated" man.

Throughout Laura Kuenssberg's show, her panel of Labour MPs - Jess Phillips, Toby Perkins and Luke Charters - gave their insights on the potential leadership contest Starmer could be facing in the coming weeks.

Phillips said it feels like we've come to "the end of the road" for Starmer. She added that if Andy Burnham were to launch a leadership competition, he would have to prove he is the "unifier" his supporters say he is, beyond Makerfield and Greater Manchester.

• As a reminder, Burnham was elected MP for Makerfield this week - meaning he could, with enough support, launch a leadership contest. He would need 81 MPs backing him

Charters said he believes Burnham would follow Labour's manifesto from the 2024 General Election - adding that the Makerfield by-election was almost like a "referendum" on the future of the Labour Party.

And Perkins called for "calm heads", insisting that the government "isn't actually doing so bad" as he pointed to shorter NHS waiting times, net migration and the asylum backlog.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer is taking time this weekend to reflect on the "political realities" of today, Business Secretary Peter Kyle tells Laura Kuenssberg, adding that there is clearly "political uncertainty" at the moment.

The comments represent a change in tone from Government, our political correspondent Nick Eardley says, after Starmer insisted on Friday he would stay on and contest a leadership election.

Kyle also says Andy Burnham "could be one of those people" with the talent to lead Labour. However, he adds that he doesn't know "for a fact" what is going to happen over the next few days.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride doubts Burnham's ability to change the "fundamental nature" of the Labour Party in Parliament, saying the country needs "stability" at all times in our political system.

As pressure continues to grow on the PM to set a timetable for his departure, his former adviser Paul Ovenden says Starmer has earned the respect to make whatever decision he will make "in his own way and his own time".

During the programme, former Cabinet Secretary Lord Case said that leadership uncertainty "costs us opportunities".

He points to issues around defence spending, which he says is a "huge issue" with enormous national and international significance, and also "political significance" - pointing to the resignation of former Defence Secretary John Healey.

• For context: Healey stepped down last week citing concerns a yet-to-be-published defence investment plan failed to deliver on the UK's defence needs "at this dangerous time"

Case also says that a further change in leadership is likely to generate "a high degree of eye-rolling", costing the UK "influence on the world stage".

Also in the Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg hot seat is shadow chancellor Mel Stride, who says he doesn't think the Conservatives are responsible for the current political system of successive changes in PMs.

He adds that we need "stability" at all times in our political system as well as the right policies.

Stride says there's no evidence Andy Burnham is in the position to change the "fundamental nature" of the Labour Party in Parliament - claiming that Burnham "flip flops" and "doesn't seem to know what the fiscal rules are".

He notes the Tories' success in the Aberdeen South by-election this week, saying it was based on the party's policies on energy and North Sea oil and gas.

The shadow chancellor also says his party is becoming "increasingly competitive", adding that Reform lost the Makerfield by-election despite throwing the "kitchen sink" at it and describes Nigel Farage's party as "fantasy economists".

• The programme has now concluded but stay with us as we bring you more on the latest political developments and analysis.

Kuenssberg next sits down with former Keir Starmer adviser Paul Ovenden, asking how the PM is likely to be feeling right now.

Ovenden says that Starmer's way of thinking was always: "Put the country first, the Labour Party second, and probably his own ambitions or well-being third." He says this is what will "guide his way of thinking" now.

Reflecting on Starmer's leadership in the 2024 General Election, he says the PM has earned the respect to make whatever decision he will make "in his own way and his own time".

Kuenssberg turns to Andy Burnham, who Ovenden says has "fantastic charisma" and is able to connect with voters.

He says as long as the 2024 manifesto is "honoured in spirit", there shouldn't be a problem in someone elected in a by-election potentially taking on the party leadership.

Nick Eardley
Political correspondent

The firm - perhaps overwhelming - favourite to be the next prime minister is Andy Burnham.

But what will he do with power, if he gets it?

On Laura Kuenssberg's panel, Labour MP Toby Perkins asks: "We do need to know if we've got a change of direction, are we basically still supporting the manifesto we were all elected on?"

Luke Charters, another Labour MP supporting Andy Burnham, insists the answer is yes - but the current leadership has been too timid.

Kuenssberg turns to her panel to discuss the interviews with her guests.

Starmer supporter Toby Perkins says the government is delivering on the main things that it said it would do, and that we could do with "calm heads".

Asked whether it was "serious" for some of Labour to be trying to get rid of an PM in office, Burnham backer Luke Charters says the country is in a "vastly different" now than it was when Labour won the 2024 General Election in a landslide victory.

Jess Phillips weighs in, saying Andy Burnham will have to "prove that is that unifier" that Charters claims he is, beyond Makerfield and Greater Manchester.

She says it looks like a "slow resignation" is taking place after Peter Kyle's interview.

Kyle made it clear Starmer is weighing up his futurepublished at 09:38 BST

09:38 BST

Nick Eardley
Political correspondent

The signs the prime minister is considering resigning are clear from what we've heard this morning.

The business secretary said he did not know for sure what was about to happen.

But he was also clear Keir Starmer is weighing up his future - reflecting on political reality and the challenges he faces.

The prime minister, Peter Kyle said, will do "what is in the best interests of the country".

A growing number of figures in government believe the prime minister is preparing to set out plans for his departure as soon as Monday.

Number Ten continues to point to the PM's words on Friday, when he said he intended to fight and leadership challenge.

Kuenssberg has been speaking with former Defence Secretary Lord Hutton, who says there is a "high chance" that Keir Starmer is on his way out.

He adds that he wants any transition to be done in the "best possible way" and to put the country's interests first.

Hutton says that Burnham has to know where he wants to take the country and be "clear in his mind" about how to address the fundamental challenges it faces.

"I think there's a challenge, for sure," he says. "And I think it must be met and mastered by Andy and any of the other candidates who want to put their hat in the ring.

"We've got to get a sense of where they want to take the country. And I think that's the very least that leadership candidates owe to the electorate at this moment in time. The country is watching."

Hutton says that the Labour Party has a mandate based on the 2024 election that it should stick to, adding he has nothing but respect for Burnham as a leader and he has all the necessary skills "in abundance".

Kyle is then asked if Andy Burnham has the qualifications to lead Labour, to which he says the party is "burgeoning" with talent.

He adds that Burnham "could be one of those people", and that the business secretary would grab the opportunity to serve in any Labour cabinet "with both hands".

Kuenssberg puts to Kyle that Labour is entering some form of "transition", to which he says he doesn't want to appear "delusional" that the prime minister is not being challenged.

He says what is important is that "we govern through whatever unfolds or may not unfold in the days ahead", adding that potential challengers also want this to be the case.

Kuenssberg asks if this means an "orderly transition". Kyle says no, and repeats that the country must be put first.

She notes that is a "world away" from what the PM is saying about fighting any leadership challenge. Kyle responds: "The reality right now is that there is process under way, there are people who seek to challenge Keir." He adds that he doesn't know "for fact" what the next few days will entail.

Any change that may or may not happen should be done in a "functional way", he says, and Labour needs to learn from the Tories - including in understanding that it is not true that when a problem arises, "changing the person at the top would fix everything".

The leadership is "more than one person", he says and all of Labour needs to "bear responsibility" for the failures.

Asked whether there should be a contest, he refuses to answer but says in his view contests are always better.