Trump weighing in on Starmer's future is not first social media swipe at the PMpublished at 17:16 BST

17:16 BST

Tomos Morgan
North America correspondent

When Trump became president for the second time, Starmer made extraordinary efforts to ensure the so-called special relationship continued.

He played up to the president's ego, giving him a second state visit - making Trump the only president to receive two.

Early policy differences with the US on trade and tariffs, recognition of a Palestinian state and the future of Greenland were cautiously navigated so as to avoid a break between them.

But the war with Iran changed everything.

In January, even before the first missile was fired, Trump lambasted Starmer for handing over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius calling it "an act of total weakness" - as the US wanted to use the UK military base there to launch attacks against Iran.

The relationship has not recovered. Time after time there have been critical remarks towards Starmer, with Trump at one point saying "he’s not Winston Churchill", and threatening "the US won’t be there to help you (the UK) anymore".

No 10 says the two leaders have not spoken over the weekend, suggesting Trump’s message that Starmer will resign is a social media swipe based on speculation. But it’s another low point in their relationship.

Joe Pike
Political correspondent

No 10 has told the BBC that Sir Keir Starmer has not spoken to Donald Trump this weekend.

It follows a social media post from the president which said: "Keir Starmer will resign as prime minister of the United Kingdom."

It is unclear whether this intervention was based on specific insight or if it is a response to wider media speculation about the prime minister's future.

Sir Keir has not appeared in public since Friday, when he told broadcasters that he would fight any challenge to his leadership.

The BBC has contacted the White House for comment.

Trump's comments on Starmer's future are utterly unconventionalpublished at 16:14 BST

16:14 BST

Chris Mason
Political editor

A defining feature of much of Starmer’s time in Downing Street has been how to handle the most wildly unpredictable American president in modern history.

The essence of this is never knowing what he might say next — and his capacity to drive a coach and horses through what others might regard as diplomatic niceties and conventions.

And here we are, perhaps on the eve of the prime minister announcing his resignation, and President Trump has got there first — and, as is standard for him but still utterly unconventional — offered a public commentary on the policy choices of a fellow democratically elected leader.

Convention says leaders don’t tend to offer a commentary on their peers’ domestic policy choices. But President Trump has never been much of a fan of political convention.

What we don’t know is if the president actually knows any more than the rest of us, or is joining the dots, as many others are.

Downing Street is yet to comment on whether the prime minister and the president have spoken this weekend.

Chris Mason
Political editor

As we've just reported, Trump has posted on social media that Starmer "will resign" as prime minister.

What we don’t know as we digest that post is the extent to which this is the president joining the dots or if he knows something definitive.

Given the capacity of Trump to pick up his smart phone and tap out a message on social media I think No 10 would have been alive to sharing anything with the US before saying anything publicly.

Even if this is Trump joining the dots, frankly, this weekend the dots are there to be joined.

It is not ludicrous for anybody to look at the political facts and see it is likely the prime minister will be setting out his resignation timetable pretty soon.

Image source, EPA

US President Donald Trump has weighed in on growing speculation about the PM's future.

He writes on Truth Social: "Keir Starmer will resign as Prime Minister of The United Kingdom. He failed badly on two very important subjects- IMMIGRATION AND ENERGY (OPEN NORTH SEA OIL!). I wish him well!"

The line from No 10 this morning was that the PM's position hasn't changed from Friday, when he vowed to fight on. Cabinet minister Peter Kyle said this morning Starmer has been spending part of the weekend reflecting on the "political realities".

Burnham's victory in Makerfield has shown he can beat Reformpublished at 14:28 BST

14:28 BST

Nick Eardley and Henry Zeffman
Political correspondent and chief political correspondent

Image source, EPA

Labour MPs argue the problem isn't necessarily the party, it's the man at the top. They believe the prime minister is personally unpopular - and that it is Sir Keir Starmer who is holding his party back.

The result of the Makerfield by-election looks set to be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Andy Burnham's victory wasn't even close - he beat Reform comfortably. For Labour MPs despairing about how they take the fight to Nigel Farage's party, they now have a leadership contender who can argue he has a track record of doing exactly that.

Dozens of MPs had already said Starmer should quit. That list has grown since Thursday, with senior cabinet ministers adding their voices privately.

The fact that it is known that ministers including Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander have told the prime minister to go and yet they remain in their jobs speaks volumes about how Starmer's authority has collapsed.

Burnham is now the overwhelming favourite to be the UK's next prime minister.

If Starmer does resign in the coming days, the next question is whether there is any contest at all.

Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, always said he would stand. But his allies are now saying there should be conversations between candidates for No 10 about what the future looks like.

There are some hints a deal could be struck (even if Team Streeting are saying for now that their position hasn't changed).

• Read the rest of the analysis here.

Image source, Trafford Council

While Andy Burnham's victory in the Makerfield by-election on Thursday has opened up a path for him to challenge Keir Starmer as Labour leader, it has also left a vacuum in his former role as Greater Manchester mayor.

The Green Party has named Trafford councillor Geraldine Coggins as their candidate for the contest, looking to build on their success in the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year.

Coggins told supporters at a launch event in Manchester it was a straight contest between the Greens and Nigel Farage's Reform UK as she pledged to improve transport, housing and choose "people and planet over profits".

The mayoral election is scheduled to take place on 30 July, with Labour set to announce its candidate on Friday.

Throughout our coverage, we have been referring to Andy Burnham's win in the Makerfield by-election, where he took 24,927 votes.

Here is a reminder of how the victory went down, in numbers:

• More than 45,500 votes were cast in the Makerfield by-election
• That equates to 58.8% of the constituency. It's the first time since 1982 that a by-election turnout was greater than that of the previous general election (52.5% in 2024)

• Burnham secured 55% of the vote overall - and increased Labour's vote share by 10 percentage points
• 15,696 votes - or 35% - went to Reform UK, bumping the party's vote share by three percentage points
• Newcomers Restore Britain received 3,111 votes - or 7%
• 997 votes went to the Conservatives, 308 to the Greens and 163 to the Lib Dems

As the day dawned to an Andy Burnham victory in Makerfield on Friday, Prime Minister Starmer congratulated the man who has set his sights on No 10 while later asserting he would fight any challenge to his leadership.

Today, the mood at the top of government has changed. Here's how we got here:

• Andy Burnham wins Makerfield just after 03:00 BST on Friday by a significant margin and declares "this is a final chance to change" in a message to Labour
• At approximately 06:00, Starmer congratulates Burnham. Later he warns a leadership race would plunge the country into "chaos", repeating he would contest any race. He also urges Labour to "pull together as a party and a movement"
• Allies of Burnham and Wes Streeting, another leadership contender, tell the BBC neither will make public appearances over the weekend, in an apparent bid to give the PM room to decide his future
• In a conversation with the PM, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander suggests he set out a timetable to leave office, the BBC is told. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is also understood to be urging him to set out a plan to resign
• On Sunday morning, No 10 responds to reports suggesting Starmer could resign as soon as Monday, saying he's "getting on with the job"
• Business Secretary Peter Kyle tells the BBC Starmer is making time this weekend to reflect on the "political realities", saying he had a "thoughtful conversation" with the PM on Friday - though he did not say Starmer would resign

Nick Eardley and Henry Zeffman
Political correspondent and chief political correspondent

Image source, No 10 Downing Street

The signs are growing that tomorrow could see the prime minister set out a plan to stand down.

Sir Keir Starmer has always insisted he will not walk away and will fight any leadership challenge. But the mood in government has shifted in the past 48 hours.

Several government insiders now think that the prime minister could announce a timetable to quit - as soon as Monday.

The signs were clear that things are moving quickly in what Business Secretary Peter Kyle told the BBC this morning.

The prime minister, he said, would do "what is in the best interests of the country".

Starmer, he added, was reflecting on the challenges he faces and political realities.

The challenges for the prime minister have been steadily growing for some time.

• You can read the rest of the article here.

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

The result of Thursday's Makerfield by-election has led to a growing number of MPs within the Labour Party calling on Keir Starmer to resign, including figures within his own cabinet.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander held a conversation with the prime minister on Friday following Andy Burnham's victory, with the BBC being told she suggested Starmer set out a timetable to leave office.

It is also understood that Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told the Labour leader to draft exit plans, while Business Secretary Peter Kyle told BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that there is clear "political uncertainty" and Burnham "could be one of those people" with the talent to lead Labour.

The latest set of comments from Starmer's frontbenchers came after ministers such as Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband urged the PM to set out a resignation timetable following Labour's poor performance in the May elections.

Starmer's senior ministers are scheduled to meet for the weekly cabinet meeting on Tuesday, though some believe the leader's departure could come as soon as Monday.

Has a leadership challenge been triggered?

No - and the timing of any possible challenge is still unclear.

Will the prime minister stand?

Party leaders are automatically on the ballot paper unless they resign. On Friday, Keir Starmer said he "will stand" in any contest.

Who are the possible contenders?

Much of the talk has focused on Andy Burnham and former Health Secretary Wes Streeting.

Angela Rayner is favoured by some on the left of the party, while former armed forces minister Al Carns has hinted he could also enter a leadership race.

BBC Wales News

By Nick Bourne

Welsh Labour MP Tonia Antoniazzi told BBC Radio Wales' Sunday Supplement that voters "want to see change".

"Let's be honest, Keir is a very, very decent man but the country, and Wales especially, is crying out for change," she said earlier.

The Gower MP said a "divide" had been created in the Senedd following May's Welsh Parliament elections, which saw Labour - which had been in power since 1999 - beaten into third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform.

"I'm not pro-Burnham, pro-Wes, pro-anybody. I just need the change. We need the change," Antoniazzi said.

"I would like to see a leader that takes us up to the next general election and gives us a good foundation in which to win and be in power for another five years and, sadly, that person isn't Keir."

Image source, PA Media

Cabinet minister Peter Kyle told Laura Kuenssberg earlier the prime minister is making time this weekend to reflect on "political rallies" ahead of an expected challenge to his job.

Being Father's Day today, Keir Starmer has made clear on X this morning he's also making time think about another important topic.

"Being a dad is my greatest joy. Today, I’m thinking about my dad, and the father I am to my children because of him. Happy Father’s Day," he says.

Starmer told BBC Radio 4's Desert Island Discs in 2020 that he didn't often talk about his father, Rod, who died in 2018.

At the time he spoke of his regret at not being close to his late father, who he described as a "difficult" and "complicated" man.

Throughout Laura Kuenssberg's show, her panel of Labour MPs - Jess Phillips, Toby Perkins and Luke Charters - gave their insights on the potential leadership contest Starmer could be facing in the coming weeks.

Phillips said it feels like we've come to "the end of the road" for Starmer. She added that if Andy Burnham were to launch a leadership competition, he would have to prove he is the "unifier" his supporters say he is, beyond Makerfield and Greater Manchester.

• As a reminder, Burnham was elected MP for Makerfield this week - meaning he could, with enough support, launch a leadership contest. He would need 81 MPs backing him

Charters said he believes Burnham would follow Labour's manifesto from the 2024 General Election - adding that the Makerfield by-election was almost like a "referendum" on the future of the Labour Party.

And Perkins called for "calm heads", insisting that the government "isn't actually doing so bad" as he pointed to shorter NHS waiting times, net migration and the asylum backlog.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer is taking time this weekend to reflect on the "political realities" of today, Business Secretary Peter Kyle tells Laura Kuenssberg, adding that there is clearly "political uncertainty" at the moment.

The comments represent a change in tone from Government, our political correspondent Nick Eardley says, after Starmer insisted on Friday he would stay on and contest a leadership election.

Kyle also says Andy Burnham "could be one of those people" with the talent to lead Labour. However, he adds that he doesn't know "for a fact" what is going to happen over the next few days.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride doubts Burnham's ability to change the "fundamental nature" of the Labour Party in Parliament, saying the country needs "stability" at all times in our political system.

As pressure continues to grow on the PM to set a timetable for his departure, his former adviser Paul Ovenden says Starmer has earned the respect to make whatever decision he will make "in his own way and his own time".

During the programme, former Cabinet Secretary Lord Case said that leadership uncertainty "costs us opportunities".

He points to issues around defence spending, which he says is a "huge issue" with enormous national and international significance, and also "political significance" - pointing to the resignation of former Defence Secretary John Healey.

• For context: Healey stepped down last week citing concerns a yet-to-be-published defence investment plan failed to deliver on the UK's defence needs "at this dangerous time"

Case also says that a further change in leadership is likely to generate "a high degree of eye-rolling", costing the UK "influence on the world stage".

Also in the Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg hot seat is shadow chancellor Mel Stride, who says he doesn't think the Conservatives are responsible for the current political system of successive changes in PMs.

He adds that we need "stability" at all times in our political system as well as the right policies.

Stride says there's no evidence Andy Burnham is in the position to change the "fundamental nature" of the Labour Party in Parliament - claiming that Burnham "flip flops" and "doesn't seem to know what the fiscal rules are".

He notes the Tories' success in the Aberdeen South by-election this week, saying it was based on the party's policies on energy and North Sea oil and gas.

The shadow chancellor also says his party is becoming "increasingly competitive", adding that Reform lost the Makerfield by-election despite throwing the "kitchen sink" at it and describes Nigel Farage's party as "fantasy economists".

• The programme has now concluded but stay with us as we bring you more on the latest political developments and analysis.

Kuenssberg next sits down with former Keir Starmer adviser Paul Ovenden, asking how the PM is likely to be feeling right now.

Ovenden says that Starmer's way of thinking was always: "Put the country first, the Labour Party second, and probably his own ambitions or well-being third." He says this is what will "guide his way of thinking" now.

Reflecting on Starmer's leadership in the 2024 General Election, he says the PM has earned the respect to make whatever decision he will make "in his own way and his own time".

Kuenssberg turns to Andy Burnham, who Ovenden says has "fantastic charisma" and is able to connect with voters.

He says as long as the 2024 manifesto is "honoured in spirit", there shouldn't be a problem in someone elected in a by-election potentially taking on the party leadership.