Prisons are running out of spacespublished at 10:51 BST

10:51 BST

Dominic Casciani
Home and legal correspondent

Image source, EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

Putting aside the question of how offenders will be managed when they are released early, the background question is what would happen if they were not?

The prisons would be full and criminal justice would collapse.

The system is like a factory production line: when the police catch a dangerous offender, they’re locked up ahead of trial - and then if convicted, they’re sentenced. That’s one space used up.

When they leave at the end of a sentence, that place becomes available again.

If prisons run out of spaces - as they nearly did in 2024 - the police and courts would have faced the appalling prospect of having to stop sending newly-caught criminals to cells.

The police and the courts would then be failing in their basic duty to society.

If the release scheme - which the government has been transparent about in Parliament - does not go ahead, then we will run out of cells again - perhaps within three years.

There are about 86,500 people in jails - with about 2,400 spare places.

That headroom is reducing monthly. By 2030 officials think there will be 100,000 in cells.

The government is trying to build and open up 14,000 extra cells - and if the new release-and-management scheme does not go ahead, we would hit yet another crisis very quickly indeed.

Image source, PA Media

There has been various twists and turns regarding the government's new prisoner release scheme for England and Wales, which Keir Starmer's government voted through in January 2026.

The Sentencing Act 2026 changed the rules around the sentencing and management of prisoners to ease overcrowding in jails, and implemented recommendations by a review conducted by former justice secretary David Gauke - published in May 2025.

Some 6,000 criminals were due to be released at varying stages, and the scheme was due to come into force from 2 September. A revised version of the scheme will now begin from October.

But on 22 July, PC Harper's mother, Debbie Adlam, called the scheme - which could reduce the sentences of two of her son's killers - an "insult".

She told the Telegraph she had received a letter from the Ministry of Justice confirming the sentences might be reduced for Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers, who were sentenced to 13 years in custody for manslaughter in 2020.

A day later on 23 July, newly elected Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced he was pausing the scheme for review.

On 3 August, the government announced a revision to the scheme - that prisoners who committed rape, grooming, and serious child sex offences will be excluded.

Harper's mother Debbie Adlam told BBC Newsnight she was "devastated" that the change to the scheme still left two of her sons' killers eligible for early release.

This morning, Justice Secretary Alex Norris said the government is trying to avoid running out of prison spaces as soon as October. "We would like to have gone further than that, but we cannot I'm afraid," he said.

Large rise in offenders sent back to prison, figures showpublished at 10:02 BST

10:02 BST

Image source, EPA

By Tom Edgington and Harriet Agerholm

Figures released last week show there has been a large rise in the number of offenders being recalled to prisons in England and Wales having been released on licence.

There were 51,419 licence recalls in the year ending March 2026, up from 40,259 in the previous year - a 28% increase.

Although recalls in January to March 2026 were slightly lower than the previous three-month period, they remain well above historical levels.

The increase in prisoner recalls comes after the government introduced an early release scheme in England and Wales to help ease overcrowding pressure in September 2024.

The scheme meant eligible prisoners could be released after serving 40% of certain sentences rather than half.

As of March 2026, 70,066 people had been released, external under the scheme.

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) said offenders released on licence face strict conditions "and can be hauled back to prison if they break these rules".

• You can read BBC Verify’s full story here

Calvin Buckley, whose partner Frankie Jules-Hough and unborn child died when she was hit by a motorist in May 2023, says he is "shocked and disappointed" that the killer could be released early under the scheme.

He tells BBC Breakfast that he hoped people convicted of death by dangerous driving would be exempted alongside murders and other serious offences, but that is not the case.

"To kill somebody and have your sentence reduced, is not right," he says.

For context: Prisoners who committed rape, grooming, and serious child sex offences will now be excluded from the early release scheme.

Buckley appealed against the initial sentence given to driver Adil Iqbal as unduly lenient, which was then increased from 12 to 15 years, with a commitment that the perpetrator would serve two thirds of that.

But now he fears the offender will be released after serving half the sentence and actually spend less time behind bars than before the sentence was increased.

"Our justice is being taken away, I understand there's a crisis, I agree that it needs to be addressed, but not at the expense of victims. My grief is not being reduced."

Victims and their families have been sent into a state of shock by the early release scheme, the victims' commissioner for England and Wales tells BBC Breakfast.

Claire Waxman says she welcomes the changes to the plans, which excludes prisoners who committed rape, grooming, and serious child sex offences, but those exemptions don't go far enough.

Waxman says she has spoken to victims since the announcement of the scheme and says the news "re-traumatised them".

"For many it feels like an injustice," she adds.

Waxman calls for more support for victims who will see the perpetrator in their case released early and for the prime minister to show "proper leadership across the criminal justice system" to place reform high up the political agenda.

She says that successive governments have failed victims over the years by mismanaging and under funding the criminal justice system and it's "victims that pay the price".

The chief executive of the Prison Reform Trust charity has said there are "no happy solutions" to the issue of overcrowding in prisons, adding that previous legislation was created to avoid the problem.

Pia Sinha tells Radio 4’s Today programme: "If we keep adding exceptions and exemptions to that, we will diminish the number of people that can be released and we will be back within months to another capacity crisis."

The former prison governor also says that while the custodial part of prisoners' sentences may end, they will continue to serve community sentences under "very strict conditions".

When asked about Prime Minister Andy Burnham considering releasing more women from jail and using those places for male prisoners, Sinha says closing a women's prison "isn't really a simple option" to tackle the issue.

Justice Secretary Alex Norris has also been speaking to Radio 4's Today programme this morning.

He says the government is directly engaging with families of victims following the change to the early release scheme so "they can live their life fully".

The justice secretary says approximately 1,000 prisoners will now not be released early following the revision to the scheme, adding there is "no doubt" he and others wanted to "go further".

"If we drew it any wider we would have a prison capacity crisis," Norris says.

Norris adds that this is the "first time" there has been a long term grip on the prison system to prevent ministers taking emergency action in the future, and mentions the government's scheme to build more prison places and changes to sentencing.

Image source, PA Media

Following the new exclusions to the sentencing act, the Prison Governors' Association (PGA) union warns that it is now "unclear" how many people will have their sentences changed.

"We don’t know if it is tens, hundreds or thousands that will be excluded from the so called 'progression model'", the group says in a statement.

Speaking to Radio 4's Today programme, Justice Secretary Alex Norris says approximately 1,000 prisoners will now not be released early following the revision to the scheme.

Changing the sentencing act "at a very late stage" is "putting huge pressure on prison and probation staff" to identify prisoners who will be excluded and recalculate their sentences, the PGA adds.

"This pressure, when the work has already been done once and many staff will be away on holiday, makes mistakes more likely."

PGA president Tom Wheatley adds that the government needs to focus on a "long term, sustainable approach" to extending prison capacity, including by building more prisons and investing in existing infrastructure.

They needs to "decide on a direction and stick to it", he adds.

Gemma Chappell is the great-aunt of two-year-old Maya Chappell, who died in 2022 after being violently shaken by her mother's boyfriend, Michael Daymond.

Michael Daymond was sentenced to life imprisonment with a minimum of 20 years for the two-year-old's murder. He was never eligible for release under the sentencing act, which excludes some of the most serious and dangerous offenders, such as murderers serving life sentences.

Gemma tells Radio 4's Today programme that Maya's mother Dana Carr, who was sentenced to nine years in jail after being found guilty of child cruelty by neglect, "turned a blind eye" to Daymond abusing the two-year-old.

The former prison officer says she welcomes the decision to exclude prisoners who committed rape and serious child sex offences from the early release scheme, describing it as the "right decision", but feels the changes have not gone far enough.

She says she is aware something needs to be done about overcrowding in prisons, but that it is "ridiculous" offenders such as Carr could be released early under the scheme: "Letting serious offenders out onto our streets is not that answer."

On BBC Breakfast, Justice Secretary Alex Norris is pressed on how effective probation services are, given the number of offenders recalled to prison has increased by 28% on the previous year.

Norris says he wants to stress that people leaving prison early are not doing so under "bog standard licensing conditions".

"That middle phase of their sentence is not going to be wandering round scot-free," he says, adding that they will have "very significant controls on their lives".

He says the government will be talking to victims and families about what controls they want to see put in place.

Norris says that without the sentencing act changes, there would be no prison places available by this October due to overcrowding.

The justice secretary says 5,000 prisoners in England and Wales will be released earlier than planned as part of the revised scheme, which he describes as a "manageable load".

Alex Norris says he recognises the "anger and upset" from individuals such as the mother of PC Harper, and this "should not be a position" that the police officer's family find themselves in.

Norris says the government is trying to avoid running out of prison spaces as soon as October this year - and points out prisoners who committed rape, grooming, and serious child sex offences will be excluded from the scheme.

"We would like to have gone further than that, but we cannot I'm afraid," he adds.

Debbie Adlam, Andrew Harper's mother, has just spoken to BBC Breakfast, after earlier speaking to Newsnight.

"Andrew deserves better than this and so do we," she says.

She says her family don't know how the release, now due next year, will affect them emotionally - and she is worried how she will cope.

"It's a horrible place to be," she says.

Image source, PA Media

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says the government's changes to the early release scheme are only a "partial climbdown" - and victims "deserve so much better".

"Andy Burnham wants a round of applause for agreeing not to release rapists and child sex offenders. He's not getting one," she says on X.

Badenoch adds that "killers, violent offenders, men who have terrorised their partners and more will all still walk out of prison in October thanks to Labour’s early release scheme".

She says the Conservatives have a "better plan" to tackle overcrowding in prisons, including building more prisons, renting prison spaces from abroad and to "remove foreign criminals".

Image source, Getty Images

As we just reported, PC Harper's mother says Justice Secretary Alex Norris called her to apologise for the fact her son's killers will still be eligible for early release.

Announcing the changes, Norris said the government had "gone further to protect victims" after excluding prisoners who committed rape, grooming, and serious child sex offences.

"These are decisions no minister would ever want to take, but it is right these sickening crimes are excluded from these reforms," Norris said.

• Norris is speaking to BBC Breakfast shortly, followed by Radio 4's Today programme at 08:10 - follow live at the top of the page

The mother of PC Andrew Harper - who was killed in 2019 when he was dragged by a car down a country road as three teenagers fled the scene of a quad bike theft - has told the BBC she is "devastated" two of his killers remain eligible for early release.

Speaking to BBC Newsnight, Debbie Adlam, said: "It feels like we're letting Andrew down again.

"We've been through the justice system, we thought we'd done as best as we could.

"We are devastated with Andrew's loss for every day of our lives now. We're devastated. Now it's just another thing to be devastated [by] on top."

Adlam said that she had been phoned by the justice secretary, Alex Norris, who apologised to her.

"Apparently, the situation is, if nothing was done, then the prison system would fall completely. But we're paying the price for it," she said.

• Debbie Adlam will be speaking to BBC Breakfast soon - you can watch live at the top of the page

The policy, designed to ease overcrowding, will mean thousands of prisoners in England and Wales being eligible for earlier release:

• Offenders serving standard fixed sentences, who were due to be released after 50% of their term, will leave jail after 33%
• Serious sexual and violent offenders on fixed terms, who would have been released at 66% of their sentence, will be released after 50%
• On Monday night, the government said the changes will not now apply to people guilty of rape, serious child sex and other grooming offences

• The most serious offenders - including life prisoners and those who are subjected to extended monitoring - were already not eligible under the scheme

A revision to a government scheme to tackle prison overcrowding has left the mother of PC Andrew Harper "devastated" - as two of her sons' killers will still be eligible for early release.

The change will see prisoners who committed rape, grooming, and serious child sex offences being excluded from an early release scheme for England and Wales, the government announced last night.

But people guilty of manslaughter are still be eligible for earlier release.

PC Harper, 28, was killed in 2019 when he was dragged by a car down a country road as three teenagers fled the scene of a quad bike theft in Berkshire.

His family previously said they had received a letter from the Ministry of Justice confirming that two of the killers could be included in the scheme, becoming eligible for release after serving half of their 13 year sentences.

Harper's mother, Debbie Adlam, told BBC Newsnight she was "devastated".

"It feels like we're letting Andrew down again," she said.

"We've been through the justice system, we thought we'd done as best as we could. Now we're standing up to fight again."

Justice Secretary Alex Norris and Adlam will be speaking on the BBC later this morning about the changes to the scheme. We will be bringing you all the latest updates here.