Akaga ka misire za 'ballistique': Uburusiya bushobora kumara igihe kingana gute kibirasa kuri Kyiv?

Volodymyr Zelensky avuga ko ibitero vy'ibisasu vya misire za ballistique ko ari "ikibazo gikomeye" kandi ko ari zo "nguvu za nyuma" Uburusiya busigaranye. Kuva uku kwezi kw'indwi gutanguye, Ukraine yatewe ibi bisasu ku rugero rutari bwigere rubaho yongera ihatakariza abasivire batari bake, cane cane ku mugwa mukuru Kyiv. None vyagenze gute, yohangana na vyo gute?

Mu misi cumi ya mbere y'uku kw'indwi, Uburusiya bwagavye ibitero bitatu vya balistike kuri Kyiv no mu tundi turere twa Ukraine, ahanini bukoresheje ibisasu vya misire za ballistique, hamwe kandi n'ibisasu vya misire binyaruka gusumba ijwi.

66 ni vyo bimaze gukoreshwa vyose hamwe, 90 % bikaba vyaciye hejuru y'umugwa mukuru Kyiv. Bine vyonyene ni vyo vyasamburiwe mu kirere, ni ukuvuga 6%. Abasivire bashika kuri 60 ni bo bahasize ubuzima.

Ivyo bisasu vyarasiwe ahanini mu buraruko bushira ubuseruko bw'Uburusiya, cane cane mu ntara za Bryansk, Oryol na Kursk.

Kandi bishobora kuba atari vyo vya nyuma birekuriwe kuri Ukraine muri uku kwezi kw'indwi.

Amayeri y'ibitero vy'Uburusiya n'uburyo Ukraine ivyivuna

Ukraine yatanguye kuronka ubushobozi bwo gukorora ibisasu vya misire za ballistique muri Rusama (5) 2023, inyuma y'aho ubuhinga bwa Amerika bwo kwivuna ibitero vyo mu kirere hakoreshejwe misire zo mu bwoko bwa Patriot butanguye gukoreshwa n'igisirikare ca Ukraine.

Kuva ico gihe, ubushobozi bwo guhangana n'ubwo bwoko bwa misire bwagiye buhindagurika, ariko ntibwigeze bumanuka munsi y'ibice 10 gushika kuri 15 kw'ijana ku kwezi.

Igihe ibi bitero vyari bikaze kuruta ibindi, ni ukuvuga mu mezi atatu y'urushana rwa 2025-2026, Uburusiya bwagavye ibitero 14 bikomeye vya misile kandi burasa igitigiri kinini kitari bwigere kiboneka c'ibisasu vya misire za ballistique.

Ariko kandi na Ukraine yarashoboye gukorora igitigiri kitari bwigere kibaho c'ivyo bisasu muri ico kiringo nyene. Mu mezi amwamwe, yarashoboye kwivuna ivyo bisasu ku rugero hafi rwa 60%.

Nk'akarorero, muri Kigarama (12) 2025, igisirikare ca Ukraine carashoboye gukorora misire 34 muri 56, harimwo n'izo mu bwoko bwa Iskander-M, KN-23, S-300/400, hamwe na Kinzhal, Zircon na Kh-22. Muri Nzero (1), ubuhinga bwo kwivuna ibitero vyo mu kirere bwasamburiye mu kirere ibisasu vya misire za ballisitike 37 kuri 68, nayo muri Ruhuhuma (2) 53 kuri 130 bikaba ari vyo vyasamburiwe mu kirere.

Muri Ruhuhuma kandi, Uburusiya bwaciye umuhigo mu bitero rutura bukoresheje ibisasu vya misire, kuko muri uko kwezi bwagavye ibitero indwi.

Ico ni co gihe Uburusiya bwari bwerekanye ubushobozi bwo hejuru cane, ariko bukaba butashitse ku ntego bwipfuza - kuko butashoboye gusambura 'burundu' amasoko ntanganguvu ya Ukraine.

Kuva mu mpeshi, ibitigiri vya misire za ballistique Uburusiya bwarasa vyasubiye ku rugero rwari rusanzwe, ni ukuvuga hafi misire 50 ku kwezi. Ariko rero, ubushobozi bwa Ukraine bwo kuzivuna bwatanguye kugabanuka.

Bivugwa ko imwe mu mpamvu nyamukuru yoba yabaye ubukene bwa misire zo mu bwoko bwa RAS-3 bwo gusambura izindi misire, kubera ko ico gihe Amerika n'incuti zayo bariko bakoresha uburyo bw'umurengera mu ntambara kuri Irani yatanguye ku wa 28 Ruhuhuma 2026.

Rero, kuva mu kwa gatatu, Ukraine yivunye ibi bisasu vya misire za ballistique ku rugero rwa 37% (misire 16 kuri 43 ni zo zakorowe), mu kwa kane – 14% (7 kuri 50 ni zo zakorowe), hanyuma mu kwa gatanu – 11% gusa (12 kuri 104 ni zo zakorowe).

Kubera ko Uburusiya bwari bumaze kubona ko Ukraine ifise ikibazo c'uburyo bwo kwivuna ibitero vyo mu kirere, bwaciye butangura kwongereza "iterabwoba rya ballistique" mu kwa gatandatu. Muri uko kwezi gusa, bwarashe misile 114 z'ubwo bwoko, 45 muri zo zikaba ari zi zonyene zakorowe, nk'uko abategetsi ba Ukraine babivuga.

Uburyo Uburusiya bugaba ibi bitero busa n'ubudasanzwe. Hari igihe bugaba ibitero rutura nka bibiri mu kwezi, buri kimwe kikaba kirimwo misire za ballistique zirenga 30, canke bikaba ibidafise ubukana burenze, ariko bikaba incuro zitatu canke zine mu kwezi.

Muri uku kw'indwi, inyuma y'uko Vladimir Putin ategetse "kubandanya n'ibitero vyo guhwikira", igisirikare c'Uburusiya kiriko kigerageza kwongereza akariro.

Ku wa 2 no ku wa 6 Mukakaro (7), Uburusiya bwakoze ibitero bibiri bukoresheje ibisasu vya misire za ballisitike n'ibisa na vyo, kimwe kimwe cose kirimwo misire zigera kuri 30, hanyuma mw'ijoro no ku mutaga ku wa 8 Mukakaro bukaba bwarashe izindi misire indwi.

Uburusiya buboneka ko bugifise integabizoza z'ibi bisasu ku buryo mu gihe bwobandanya ibi bitero kuri uru rugero, bushobora gusumvya ivyo bwagavye muri Ruhuhuma.

Gusa, bamwe mu bihweza ibintu n'ibindi hamwe n'abahinga mu vya gisirikare bafise amakenga ku bushobozi bw'Uburusiya bwo kubandanya ibi bitero kuri utu rugero.

None bwoba bufise ibingana gute?

Urwego rukuru rw'igendereza mu bushikiranganji bwa Ukraine bujejwe kwivuna abansi (GUR) ruvuga ko Uburusiya bukora hagati ya misile 60 na 65 zo mu bwoko bwa 9M723 za Iskander-M buri kwezi, kandi ko muri rusangi bukora hafi misire 100 zo mu bwoko bwa ballistic, n'izindi zinyaruka gusumba ijwi.

Mu myaka ine iheze y'iyi ntambara, ibirwanisho vyo muri ubu bwoko vyahinguwe vyikuvye incuro zibiri gushika kuri zitatu. Ariko biracari bike kugira ngo bushobore kwama bugaba ibitero buri ku ndwi, mu gihe kandi bukeneye gusubiriza misire zigenda zisaza uko imyaka igenda.

Nk'uko ibiharuro vya GUR bivyerekana, gushika muri uku kw'indwi, ibisasu vya misire vyo mu bwoko bwa Iskanders bisigaye mu bubiko vyababa 200.

Ibi bisigura ko muri aya mezi ya vuba, Uburusiya bwagiye burasa hafi misire zose buhingura, mbere rimwe na rimwe bukikora no ku ntegabizoza.

Umuhanuzi mu bushikiranganji bwo kwivuna abansi bwa Ukraine, Serhiy Beskrestnov, azwi kw'izina ry'intambara rya "Flash", avuga ati: "Misire zose za ballistique twarashwe zakozwe hagati y'impera za 2025 n'intango za 2026. Mu yandi majambo, turaswa na misire zivuye mu ruganda".

Ibi vyerekana ko, kiretse Uburusiya buhinguye izindi canke bukikora ku ntegabizoza, bishoboka ko budafise ubushobozi bwo kurasa hagati ya misire 100 na 140 za ballistic buri kwezi, zingana n'ibitero rutura indwi.

Kugira ngo burenge ubushobozi bwa Ukraine bwo kwivuna ibitero vyo mu kirere, Uburusiya bukeneye kurasa misire za ballistic hagati ya 20 na 30 icarimwe canke zikurikirana mu kanya gatoyi cane. Ikizwi ni uko iyo burekuye ibi bisasu, buca bubikurikiza za misire ziguruka ku rugero ruto (missiles de croisière/cruise missiles) hamwe n'amajana ya za ndege zitajamwo abadereva (drones).

Hanyuma kandi, hampande ya misire ubwazo, ikindi kibazo ni uko hategerezwa kuba ibikoho vya muzinga vyo mu bwoko bwa Iskander-M vyo kuzirekura bigikora neza.

Nk'uko GUR ivyerekana, igisirikre c'Uburusiya carungitse ibi bikoho vyababa 60 ku mbibe za Ukraine no mu turere twigaruriwe n'Uburusiya.

Ni ibisasu bingahe vya ballistique bishobora kurungikwa

Igikoho kimwe kirasa misire zibiri za Iskander-M zikurikirana mu kiringo kiri munsi y'umunota umwe. Ubu buhinga bushobora kandi kuba burimwo imodoka idasanzwe itwara izindi misire zibiri zo gusubirira izarashwe. Bifata hagati y'iminota 15 na 20 kugira ngo izo misire bazambike kuri iki gikoho hanyuma ziraswe uko vyateguwe.

Igitero kiruta ibindi vyose Uburusiya bwigeze kugaba bukoresheje misile za ballistic kuva intambara itanguye cari kigizwe na misire 34. Ivyo bisigura ko hakoreshejwe ibikoho vya muzinga 17.

Nk'uko umuhinga wa Ukraine mu vy'indege n'igisirikare co mu kirere, Valeriy Romanenko, abivuga, Uburusiya bukoresha muri Ukraine birigade (brigades) zitatu zikoresha izi misire, buri birigade ikaba ifise ibikoho 12, ni ukuvuga vyose hamwe ibikoho vya Iskander-M 36 birasa izi misire.

Uyu muhinga avuga ko mu bisanzwe Uburusiya budasubiriza ibi bikoresho, izindi misire z'integabizoza ziguma zibitswe mu bibanza biri ku birometero amajana uvuye aho birasirwa.

Ni co gituma igitigiri ca mbere kinini c'ibi bisasu Uburusiya bushobora kurasa ica rimwe cababa 70. Ariko ibi ntibirigera biba kuva intambara itanguye.

Nk'uko amakuru ya GUR avyerekana, inganda z'Uburusiya zihingura ibikoresho vya gisirikare nta buryo zifise wo gukora Iskander nyinshi mu kwezi kumwe.

Valery Romanenko yabwiye BBC News Ukraine ati: "Ntibashobora kubandanya ibitero bikomeye ku rugero rwo hejuru. Ariko bazobandanya barasa Ukraine, kuko hagati y'ibitero rutura barasa misire imwe canke zibiri... Ivyo bamwe bavuga ko Uburusiya bushobora kugaba igitero gikomeye ca misire za ballistique buri ndwi, ivyo ntibizoshoboka".

Birashoboka ko bwongereza ibi bisasu?

Kubera bufise igitigiri gikwiye c'ibikoho birekura ibi bisasu, Uburusiya ubu burajwe ishinga cane no kwongereza ibisasu vya misire vyo mu bwoko bwa ballistique.

Ariko rero, igendereza rya Ukraine ryemeza ko Uburusiya bwamaze gushika ku musozo, kandi ko ivyo kwongereza uwo mwimbu bisa n'ibitagishoboka.

Iri gendereza nyene rivuga ko ibitero rutura vya misire Uburusiya bushoboye gukora bidashobora kurenga bibiri canke bitatu ku kwezi.

Pavel Luzin, umuhinga ku vyerekeye igisirikare c'Uburusiya akongera akaba n'umushakashatsi mukuru ku kigo Jamestown Foundation co muri Amerika, avuga ko Uburusiya bushobora kwongereza umwimbu, ariko ko hari ibisabwa.

"Ni vyo, Uburusiya burashobora gukora misire nyinshi za ballistique, ariko ivyo vyoshoboka gusa nimba bwemeye kugabanya ubuziranenge bwazo, bukimurira uburyo bukoresha mu guhingura ibindi birwanisho bukabishira kuri izi misire, bukaronka imfashanyo iva hanze, canke bugakora izi misire mu buryo bworoshe kandi buzimbutse kuruta uko bikorwa ubu. Atari uko, vyoba bigoye cane".

Ni iki gishobora gukirikira inyuma y'icucagirwa ry'ibi bisasu?

Muri make, nk'uko abahinga babivuga, Uburusiya bwamaze gushika ku rugero rwo ku musozo mu guhingura ibisasu vya misire ntahusha.

Kubera kandi ko bukoresha ibikoresho vya microelectronics biva mu bihugu vy'Uburengero, birashobora kutabworohera kwongereza vuba ibi bisasu butaronse imfashanyo iva hanze.

Hejuru y'ibi, urukurikirane rw'ibitero vy'ama-drone n'ibisasu vya misire Ukraine imaze igaba ku nganda z'igisirikare z'Uburusiya kuva mu ntango z'uyu mwaka, cane cane iziri i Bryansk, Voronezh, Votkinsk na Volgograd, bishobora kugira ingaruka mu ku bushobozi bwo guhingura misire za ballistique mu Burusiya.

Ariko ingaruka yavyo ishobora kwibonekeza haciye igihe, kuko mu gihe bariko barasanura izi nganda, igisirikare c'Uburusiya kirakoresha misire z'integabizoza.

Tugendeye ku makuru atangwa na GUR, birashoboka ko mu misi 40 y'impeshi igisirikare c'Uburusiya cakoresheje misire nyinshi mu bitero kuruta izo cabashije gukora muri ico gihe nyene. Ariko kubera ubukene bw'ubuhinga bwo kwivuna ibitero vyo mu kirere, igisirikare ca Ukraine nticashoboye kuzibira neza ibi bitero.

Ariko gusa, ano mahirwe kuri Kremlin (ibiro vy'umukuru w'igihugu c'Uburusiya) ari ku musozo.

Ku wa 9 Mukakaro, Perezida Zelensky yatangaje ko Ukraine igiye kuronswa ibisasu vya misire zo mu bwoko bwa Patriot "mu misi iri imbere".

Ati: "Igice kimwe kigiye kuza, gusa sinovuga ngo ni ryari – igice kimwe ca PAC-3. Twavyemeranije. Gusa ibi ntibikwiye".

Ariko hejuru y'ibi, abategetsi ba Ukraine barashoboye kwumvikana na Amerika ku burenganzira bwo gushobora guhingura izi misire.

Gusa, ibi bishobora gusa gufasha Kyiv inyuma y'imyaka ibiri canke itatu, kuko gushinga no gutangura guhingura ibi birwanisho vy'ubuhinga buhanitse bisaba igihe kinini kandi biragoye.

Uburyo bwihuta kuruta, nk'uko abategetsi ba Ukraine babivuga ku mugaragaro, ni ugushiraho ubuhinga bwayo bwite bwo gutangira ibi bisasu vya misire za ballistique, uburyo buzwi nka Freya. Ni umugambi watanguye umwaka uheze, Ukraine ikaba yashoboye kuronka ubufasha bw'abahingura ibirwanisho b' i Bulaya.

Ku ruhande rwa Ukraine, ikompanyi Fire Point ni yo ijejwe guhingura igisasu co kwivuna ibitero vyo mu kirere citwa FP 7, kizokoreshwa muri ubwo buhinga bwo kwivuna ibitero vyo mu kirere. Nk'uko ubuyobozi bw'iryo shirahamwe bubivuga, igikorwa co kugerageza ku ncuro ya mbere kurasa misire hakoreshejwe ubu buhinga bwa Ukraine busa n'ubwa Patriot kirashobora mu mwaka umwe uri imbere.