Watch: What is probability?
JEFF: How likely is it that Putter will make this shot, Janine?
JANINE: The probability? Well, he needs to get his shot past that Pineapple Windmill.
JEFF: The windmill with 6 segments?
JANINE: That’s the one Jeff! It has 3 segments covered that he needs to avoid…
…and 3 clear segments that he can get his ball through.
JEFF: But what’s the probability of him making the shot??
JANINE: I’m getting there Jeff… we can do a probability sum! We can take the number of ways that Putter can make his shot… which is 3…
…and divide it by the total possible number of outcomes… which is 6. So we get 3 over 6.
JEFF: Ah, I get it Janine! 3 divided by 6 is ½… So we can say he has a 1 in 2 chance!
JANINE: Ohhhh… he’s hit the windmill! Let’s take another look…
JEFF: Yes, the Ghost Kid changed the probability! He covered up 2 more segments, meaning Putter only had a 1 in 6 chance…
PUTTER SHOUTS ANGRILY
JANINE: Putter is not happy!
How do you show probability?
Probability or chance is how likely something is to happen.
If something has a low probability, it is unlikely to happen. If something has a high probability, it is likely to happen.
Probabilities are most commonly shown as fractions.
The probability of getting 'tails' when you toss a coin is a 1 in 2 chance, or 1/2.
Probabilities can also be shown as decimals or percentages. A probability of 1/2 can also be shown as 0.5 or 50%.
Using probability
A bag contains three bananas and nothing else.
Probabilities can be shown on a scale between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain).
The probability of reaching into the bag and pulling out a banana is 1 (certain), as there is nothing else in the bag.
The probability of reaching into the bag and pulling out an apple is 0 (impossible), as there are no apples in the bag.
Activity 1
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Primary maths teaching resources
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