WRU publishes data on why west Wales team will be cut

The Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) has published evidence outlining how it decided where the three professional men's sides in Wales should be based from 2028.

In July, the board officially decided, external to award licences to Cardiff and Dragons to represent the capital and east, which left one for west Wales, with Ospreys and Scarlets competing.

This policy was first suggested in October 2025, and the final decision came following an independent 68-page document, commissioned by the WRU, called the Keystone report, external.

That presentation and how the board chose the location licences are now in the public domain, external.

The controversial plans to cut a regional men's side started more than 12 months ago, with the WRU stating there is not enough money to support four competitive professional sides beyond 2028.

The proposal has attracted criticism from west Wales teams, fans, former players, politicians and business leaders.

The final decision on which team is culled is expected in June 2027, in time for the start of the 2028-29 season.

The process of cutting a professional men's side officially started in August 2025 when the Union said reducing the number of professional clubs from four to two was the "radical step" and "optimal solution" needed.

A consultation followed , externaland in October 2025, the WRU instead outlined proposals to reduce the number of professional sides from four to three.

In July 2026, the governing body explained how that process would take place, as they stated four sides would only be safe until the end of the 2027-28 season.

The WRU then confirmed Cardiff, who they have owned since the club went into temporary administration in April 2025, and Dragons would be given the capital and east licences.

With Ospreys and Scarlets competing to be the solitary side in west Wales, there has been consternation among supporters of those two regions.

In August, former Wales captain Jonathan Davies became the most high-profile figure to call for the WRU board to resign.

WRU director of rugby Dave Reddin, a driving force in wanting to cut a side, alongside chief executive Abi Tierney and former chair Richard Collier-Keywood, reiterated that Welsh rugby bosses will not stop their controversial plans.

The Union say they have £30m to spend on the men's game in Wales with £20m given to the professional clubs, £5m on player pathways, £4m on the community game and £1m on the semi-professional Super Rygbi Cymru (SRC) league.

While the decision on where the three licences would be awarded was officially announced in July, there was criticism that the WRU provided no evidence on how they rubber-stamped that position.

They based the decision on the Keystone paper entitled "Assessment of the geographic distribution of licences".

Keystone, external describes itself as an "economic, strategy, and technology consulting firm helping clients navigate the digital age's biggest challenges", with offices in London, New York, San Francisco and Boston.

The report was not asked to consider whether the three-team system was correct or explain how it was funded, something the WRU say was addressed in October 2025 in the document called "The way forward", external.

The Keystone report was designed to assess whether the geographic distribution of those three licences - including the proposed allocation of one licence in the capital, east and west - was supported by available evidence.

The report based its information on six factors:

1) Population and accessibility: The report highlighted that Cardiff have the largest local addressable market. Dragons also have a large addressable market and strong accessibility overall, and particularly from north Wales. Scarlets and Ospreys have smaller local populations and weaker accessibility.

The population figures provided were Cardiff 937,000, Dragons 594,000, Ospreys 540,000, Scarlets 387,000 - while the numbers within a 30-minute drive of venues given were Dragons 671,000, Cardiff 664,000, Ospreys 401,000 and Scarlets 388,000.

Proximity analysis indicates no three-club permutation appears radically worse overall in terms of accessibility. However, a model not including Cardiff or Dragons was judged to have the most detrimental effect on accessibility.

2) Fan support and heritage: All four clubs have meaningful cultural value, with distinct histories, local identities and community connections. While dated and subject to caution, the fan-survey evidence suggests Cardiff and Ospreys had the largest fan base, and Dragons the smallest but most locally concentrated support. Attendance data suggests Cardiff and Scarlets have generally been strongest, with Ospreys and Dragons lower. Overall, this factor is relevant but partly unquantifiable.

3) Rugby infrastructure: Dragons are the only club that own their stadium. Cardiff and Scarlets have established stadium positions, while Ospreys' stadium position is transitional, with St Helen's under development. This is a snapshot of current evidence, and the WRU may separately consider future commitments as part of any subsequent process.

4) Player pathways: The report states Cardiff and Scarlets are strong contributors to the Wales national team, while Ospreys also contribute materially, particularly in terms of debut players. Dragons are the lowest contributors across the reviewed pathway metrics.

5) Sporting performance: The report claims Cardiff, Ospreys and Scarlets are closely grouped in terms of Welsh team performance in club competitions, whileDragons are the weakest. Cardiff are the only club to have won a European competition, while the Ospreys are four-time league winners.

6) Financial sustainability: The report saysCardiff and Dragons currently have the strongest revenue profiles. In 2024-25, they generated the highest total revenues and the strongest independent revenues, including sponsorship, matchday and other income, which are important to long-term financial sustainability. Ospreys had the weakest revenue profile. All four clubs were loss-making in 2024-25.

Additionally, grassroots participation was investigated, using WRU reports of school teams, playing teams and coaches. They concluded Cardiff ranked first in all metrics, Dragons in the middle and Ospreys and Scarlets shared bottom place in the three sections.

The report acknowledges that parts of its data were based on results of a regional rugby survey conducted in 2018.

Keystone was also asked to consider the boundaries of the new areas, recognising some will need to be redrawn, but no definitive three-team maps were produced.

There was no overall conclusion given by Keystone, with the purpose of the analysis being to "assist the WRU board in considering the geographic distribution decision and determining whether to affirm or vary it."

In July, the WRU board made the final decision on locations after interpreting the report data and considering "additional confidential financial data".

The WRU has published a document, providing how the board decision was reached.

Of the report's six criteria points, the WRU executive recommended that greater weighting "should be given to intrinsic factors which are least likely to change materially, including population, accessibility and rugby infrastructure."

The WRU decided there should be a capital club because it would have the largest local addressable market and strong accessibility, with Cardiff having the largest population base in Wales.

The executive expressly recognised that any potential or perceived benefits to the WRU, in its capacity as the current owner of Cardiff Rugby, should not form part of this decision.

The reasons given for why an east Wales club was required, and why Dragons granted a licence decision, were a large local addressable market and strong accessibility.

A club based at Rodney Parade would have the greatest number of people within a 30-minute drive. It would be second only to a capital-based club for accessibility by train from across Wales, and the accessibility overlap between the east and capital is lower than that between the two west clubs.

It was noted in a 2018 fan survey that respondents in the east showed the highest support for their regional team, although the report conceded that survey data was historical, compiled prior to the Covid pandemic and may not reflect current behaviour or attitudes.

The east club also benefited by owning its own stadium as well as performing stronger commercially.

While Dragons performed the poorest in sporting performance and player pathway metrics, the WRU recognised it considered these factors should be accorded limited weight because the factors are expected to improve under the proposed new model.

The WRU has today published a new microsite home for progress reports, detailed documents and supporting evidence behind its future operating model for the men's professional game in Wales.

A WRU statement said: "The site provides gathered data, reports and historical information, charting the path Welsh rugby has taken to establish its current strategic direction, summaries of WRU plans and evidence it has used to support its decision-making process to date.

"Included is the most recent externally commissioned independent analysis looking at data relevant to the location of new licences from the 2028-29 rugby season.

"Openness and transparency throughout the transition to the new operating model is a vital part of the process for the WRU's board.

"The site provides a comprehensive timeline and briefing on how the new licensing process will be shaped."

The WRU say the site will be updated with additional material as the process develops.

The information is not what some WRU critics will want, although the governing body says it is being transparent.

This data release is unlikely to appease people who wanted a financial breakdown explaining why a side must be lost, while information used in the Keystone report will be analysed and queried.

Some clubs have written to the WRU asking them to release its business case for the three-team proposal before the annual general meeting (AGM) on Sunday, 22 November.

Welsh politicians held a debate in the Senedd this week, where individuals asked the WRU to do the same thing, with the majority of speakers arguing the governing body should shelve cutting a team.

Rugby bosses were criticised during the Welsh parliament discussion, although a motion could not be agreed, urging the WRU to keep four sides.

The Union are pressing ahead and say the process will begin with a "state of the game" summit in early December, with stakeholders meeting to "understand better challenges facing the sport, nationally and internationally".

If Ospreys and Scarlets are still competing for the west licence, a tender process will be established in March.

The WRU say they will announce the licensing decisions by June 2027 to "provide clubs with 12 months in which to prepare for the new framework taking effect from 1 July, 2028".