After beating Japan, Brazil will face Ivory Coast or Norway in the last 16. Those two meet at 18:00 BST today (Tuesday).

Opta give Brazil a 63.56% of reaching the quarter final - where they could meant England, DR Congo, Ecuador or Mexico - and 35.68% of reaching the semis - where Argentina could lie in wait.

They are 19.44% likely to reach the final and have a 9.20% chance of winning their sixth World Cup.

Do you think Carlo Ancelotti will take Brazil all the way?

Image source, Getty Images

Well, I don't see any tears...

Brazil's second-half fightback was too much for some inside Houston Stadium, though...

ITV pundit Roy Keane was certainly blown away by Brazil's second-half performance: "What a game. I thought that second half was fantastic...I'm telling you, their spirit and fight is as good as any of those previous [Brazil] teams. They also had brilliant quality."

In fact, Brazil completed 210 passes in the final third against Japan, which is their highest tally in a World Cup match since records began in 1966.

It is fair to say Brazil were stifled in the first half and Japan deserved their lead.

But the overall stats tell a different story and add further context to their second-half dominance as Japan sat back, inviting pressure, which finally told...

Japan manager Hajime Moriyasu got his tactics spot-on in the first half with his Japan side looking solid at the back, picking their moments to pounce on Brazil and then hitting them on the counter-attack.

Sano's goal was the perfect example, and at half-time the midfielder - who was perhaps a little fortunate to still be on the pitch after a clumsy challenge while already on a yellow card - might have been dreaming of his first international strike being a winner against Brazil.

Brazil have now advanced to the round of 16 for the 11th straight World Cup (every tournament since 1986 when the round was re-instated).

The Selecao will face either Ivory Coast or Norway in the next round in New York.

Image source, Getty Images

Tim Vickery
South American football expert on 5 Live Breakfast

It was [a scare for Brazil]. I would like to impress on you the size of the humiliation that this Brazil side were facing at half-time.

Brazil, for obvious reasons, they are traditionalist snobs. The idea of being knocked out, not in the quarter-final, but in the last 32 against a team from Asia.

Even if it is unfair - of all the teams that Brazil could face as group winners, Japan were the most dangerous to them - these players were facing a historic humiliation.

While a number of Brazil players struggled in the first half, the only substitution Ancelotti made at the break was enforced as Endrick replaced the injured Lucas Paqueta.

Sometimes Ancelotti's greatest ability is to do nothing. An oasis of calm in all the chaos around him - and it has paid off again.

Image source, Getty Images

Ultimately, for all that Carlo Ancelotti's changes made a difference, it was a Japan mistake and the composure of Bruno Guimaraes and Gabriel Martinelli that clinched victory for Brazil.

A 95th-minute winner to keep their dreams of a sixth World Cup triumph alive.

"We said before the World Cup, there is this aspect that football has its moments," Ancelotti said.

"There is no 'not making mistakes' because nobody is perfect, but you have to overcome them and push forward. That's what the team did."

Brazil were made to work, but overcoming these situations should only make them stronger - winning so dramatically will certainly give them momentum.

Perhaps the overriding emotion at full-time, though, was relief.

"Saving the nation" was the verdict of former Brazil midfielder Lucas Leiva, while South American football expert Tim Vickery spoke of them "climbing Everest the hard way".

Sam Drury
BBC Sport

They were 45 minutes from another early World Cup exit - their swiftest since 1966 - and national humiliation.

Japan had kept Brazil at arm's length in their last-32 tie, got themselves in front, and looked quite comfortable.

For a team who had not come from behind to win a World Cup knockout game since 2002, things did not look good and, for those watching on, an upset was starting to look a realistic prospect.

But we should have known better than to doubt Carlo Ancelotti.

The Brazil coach is a serial winner.

A record five Champions League wins as a manager, trophies in all five of Europe's major leagues.

You name it, he's won it. At least at club level.

But this is his first international job and the Italian is Brazil's first foreign coach at a World Cup, so surely even he was a little concerned after the first 45 minutes.

They had possession but whenever an attacking player received the ball in the final third, they instantly found a Japan defender on them, cutting off their options and giving them no room to manoeuvre.

Even going behind did not seem to jolt Brazil into action, and at half-time a shock was brewing.

Ancelotti had other ideas, though. Endrick was introduced to replace Lucas Paqueta, who appeared to take a knock early on and there was a renewed intensity to Brazil.

If Japan were going to stop them playing more intricate football around the box then Brazil would give them something else to think about - namely crosses.

They put in 28 in the second half - less than two minutes between each cross on average - and with players arriving at the far post, it worked.

That is how the first goal came about, Casemiro doing what he did so many times for Manchester United last season with a thumping header after drifting off his marker.

Japan eventually seemed to get a handle on that tactic but one late slip gave Brazil the chance they needed and first Guimaraes, then Martinelli kept their cool to send their team into the last 16.

Image source, Getty Images

You think Martin Tyler was excited about Aguero's last minute winner...

Right, moving on from VAR to Brazil's last-gasp win over Japan...

Dale Johnson
Football issues correspondent

Before the World Cup began, Pierluigi Collina, Fifa's head of referees, gave a presentation about what we should expect at the World Cup.

Collina talked about blocking, though in relation to offences that happen before the ball was in play.

Fifa changed the VAR protocol so a goal could be disallowed if the blocking happened, for example, prior to a corner being taken.

This does not quite fall into that category, as Germany had already taken the corner when Waldemar Anton supposedly fouled Orlando Gill.

But it does still show that it was an area of focus for Collina.

It seems very soft, however. If it was awarded by the referee on the field, fair enough. But the VAR review seemed to come as a surprise.

If anything, it is the goalkeeper who moves into the Germany player, who did not alter his position. Any contact between them was a consequence of that.

Was Gill really impeded from being able to make a potential save? And was it really a clear and obvious error?

While the Premier League will place a greater focus on blocking and holding next season, we should not expect a VAR intervention for something like this.

The Paraguayan public are certainly not complaining. They got a national day's holiday out of it!

BBC World Service

Before we move on to Brazil and Carlo Ancelotti, after a night/morning of penalty drama, can I point you to an excellent radio documentary from the BBC News World Service on what makes a penalty shootout quite so dramatic.

• Click this link to listen to it...

Mario Melchiot
Former Netherlands defender on 5 Live Breakfast

On the future of Julien Nagelsmann as Germany head coach:

He's young and maybe his first time going [to a World Cup] with Germany. Coaches and footballers are similar we always have the feeling like 'I have something to prove'. If Nagelsmann still has that then he will keep his job - but away from that you always think as a coach 'I don't want to go out like that because Germany is too big of a nation to go out like that'.

On the prospect of Jurgen Klopp taking the Germany job:

As a retired footballer, you look at certain coaches and you always think 'I would want to play for him'. If I look at Klopp, oh yes, he would be on my list for sure. Klopp has the ingredients to make a team want to fight for him.

On the difference between Nagelsmann and Brazil's experienced head coach Carlo Ancelotti:

Ancelotti has one of the best gifts any coach would die for - because everyone looks at this coach and believes he's got the right answers.

Germany head coach Julien Nagelsmann says he wants to continue, if the DFB [German football association] want him to continue.

There has been a clamour for Jurgen Klopp to take over, but the former Liverpool manager says now is not the time for that kind of talk.

All this while Brazil's wily old coach Carlo Ancelotti helps drag Brazil into the last 16 with a comeback win against Japan that triggers nothing more than raised eyebrow.

Here's former Netherlands defender Mario Melchiot on all three of those managers...

Image source, Getty Images

Dale Johnson
Football issues correspondent

Fifa has ditched plans to change the coin tosses before a penalty shootout at the World Cup.

Fifa had proposed a new process:

1) Captain toss: Winner decides on end OR first kick 2) Losing captain then automatically gets the choice of the other

Fifa feels this is fairer as it means one team cannot get the benefit of both.

BBC Sport understands that the Ifab was initially receptive to applying a trial, which would have allowed Fifa to use the new process in the knockout rounds at the 2026 World Cup.

This may well be revisited at a later date but there will be no mid-tournament change now.

It now remains:

1) Neutral toss using a bespoke coin with Coca-Cola on one side and the World Cup on the other. The referee assigns one side of the coin to each end of the pitch

2) Captain toss: Makes call and chooses 1st or 2nd kick

BBC Sport understands that the Ifab was initially receptive to applying a trial, which would have allowed Fifa to use the new process in the knockout rounds at the 2026 World Cup.

But Fifa withdrew the proposal to the Ifab at the end of last week.