Summary

  • The Labour Party is beginning the process of selecting a candidate for the Makerfield by-election, which is expected to be held in June

  • It comes as Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is given the go-ahead to run for the Labour nomination, potentially clearing the way for his return to Westminster

  • Prime Minister Keir Starmer continues to face pressure from Labour MPs to either resign or set a timeline for his departure following heavy losses in elections earlier this month

  • A vacancy in the north-west England seat opened up after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned this week to clear a path for Burnham - the Greater Manchester mayor is seen as a possible replacement to Starmer, but cannot run to lead the party unless he is an MP

  • Also this week, Wes Streeting resigned as health secretary - potentially paving the way for a leadership bid. His allies say he has the support of the 81 Labour MPs needed to enter a race

  • So what next? There are five possible scenarios - take a look at them here

  1. Education secretary says Burnham a 'strong candidate' for Makerfieldpublished at 11:28 BST

    Bridget Phillipson steps out of Downing Street carrying a red folderImage source, Reuters

    Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has said that Andy Burnham will be a "strong candidate" for Makerfield and "there is no intention to stand in the way" of the Greater Manchester mayor becoming the Labour candidate.

    The cabinet member tells Radio 4's Week in Westminster programme she will be campaigning for whoever is the Labour candidate in the constituency.

    Phillipson adds that the PM "continues to have my full support" despite a "really tough and bruising ... couple of weeks for everybody".

    She says Labour has not been clear or fast enough in delivering change since coming into power.

    Phillipson is asked about whether she ever fancies becoming prime minister herself. She replies: "It’s a mistake to rule yourself out of things for hypothetical situations that might or might not arise into the future."

  2. Burnham's views 'hard to pin down', says non-affiliated peerpublished at 10:53 BST

    Baroness Cavendish in a green blazer on a TV studio setImage source, Bloomberg via Getty Images
    Image caption,

    Baroness Camilla Cavendish pictured in July 2024

    We've heard from Baroness Camilla Cavendish, who spoke to the BBC's Today programme a little earlier.

    The non-affiliated peer says that "one of the fascinating things about Andy [Burnham] is that no one can quite pin him down."

    This "could be a huge advantage because I think he's quite a flexible politician", she adds.

    But Cavendish stresses that this is why "the 'contest of ideas' that Wes Streeting is calling for is really important in the next few weeks" - a reference to the former health secretary's resignation letter, where he calls for a leadership contest that is "a battle of ideas".

    A Burnham victory in Makerfield would show "he can see off Nigel Farage", Cavendish says, so she would expect the Labour Party to all unite around him afterwards.

    But she adds that "doesn't mean we shouldn't be pushing him to state some of his views - I think it is very, very hard to pin him down".

  3. Is Makerfield still a Labour safe seat?published at 10:06 BST

    If Andy Burnham is chosen as the Labour Party's candidate for the Makerfield by-election, he faces a significant challenge at the hands of Reform UK, which made gains in the area during the local elections last week.

    Makerfield is a parliamentary constituency, which has different boundary lines to a local authority, so can make comparing local and general election results a little bit tricky.

    Eight core council wards sit almost entirely inside the Makerfield constituency boundary line, and these are overseen by Wigan Council. There are other wards that partly cross into the Makerfield area, but not substantially.

    All of these eight core wards declared for Reform UK last Thursday. In the previous local elections in the area held in 2024, seven of them had declared for Labour while one ward had declared independent.

    This means that Reform took seven councillors from Labour in the Makerfield area.

    It's a trend reflected in the wider Wigan area, with Reform gaining 24 councillors and Labour losing 22. However, as only a third of council seats were up for grabs in Wigan last week, it didn't change the council's overall control - it is still Labour-held.

    Chart showing change in the number of councillors by party in England, 5,036 of 5,036 seats declared. Reform UK up 1452; Green up 441; Lib Dem up 155; Independents and Others up 44; Residents' Association down 31; Conservative down 563; Labour down 1498
    Image caption,

    Last week's elections saw Reform UK make significant council gains across England

  4. Watch: What do Makerfield voters make of by-election?published at 09:28 BST

    Media caption,

    What Makerfield makes of Andy Burnham prompted by-election

  5. Analysis

    Makerfield by-election is proof of concept for Burnhampublished at 08:48 BST

    Harry Farley
    Political correspondent

    Andy Burnham waves at the media as he goes for a run in an Everton shirt on FridayImage source, PA Media

    A lot of hurdles to Andy Burnham's return to Westminster have been cleared, but there are more to come.

    Monday is the deadline for any other candidates to put themselves forward to stand for Labour in Makerfield.

    If others do, then a decision on the chosen Labour candidate will be made on Thursday.

    Then the biggest hurdle of all: can Burnham win the seat?

    Makerfield used to be quite a safe seat, but Reform decimated Labour at last week's local elections.

    They won half the vote compared to Labour winning less than a quarter.

    This is a big challenge for Burnham. If Reform win that will be a major achievement for Nigel Farage's party on their campaign for Downing Street.

    Many in the Labour Party are seeing this as a proof of concept. If Burnham can beat Reform UK in Makerfield, then the argument goes that he is the best person to take on Reform across the country in the build up to the next General Election.

    Not for the first time we are in for a roller coaster few weeks in British politics.

  6. What's next? Five possible scenariospublished at 08:15 BST

    Joshua Nevett
    Political reporter

    Starmer sitting in a board roomImage source, Getty Images

    Andy Burnham is seeking a return to Parliament. Wes Streeting has resigned as health secretary after losing confidence in the PM. Dozens of Labour MPs have called on Starmer to step down.

    However, there has been no leadership contest triggered - yet.

    So, what are the five possible scenarios we could see play out in the coming weeks?

    1. Starmer decides to stands down: The prime minister might simply decide he's had enough, but this option seems unlikely after repeatedly stating he would not "walk away" and would fight any challenge
    2. There is a leadership contest, without Burnham: Any Labour MP could trigger a leadership contest with the backing of 81 of the party's MPs. It was thought that Streeting could be the one to do this, until he declared in his resignation letter this week that he wanted a "debate about what comes next"
    3. Burnham wins the by-election and fights Starmer for leadership: This scenario involves a leap of imagination in which Burnham is selected for, and wins, Makerfield and then receives the backing to challenge the PM once in Parliament. If such circumstances come to pass, it could set Burnham on a course to No 10
    4. Burnham wins by-election and Starmer steps down: However, a Burnham Makerfield victory would send a clear signal to the PM, who may choose to leave office rather than contest a one-on-one race with Burnham
    5. Burnham loses by-election and all bets are off: There's every chance that Burnham could lose the Makerfield by-election. If this occurs, all bets are off and the paralysis at the top of the Labour Party would enter a new and uncertain phase - while eyes turn to other Labour MPs to see if another challenge would be mounted

    For a full run-down of the possible scenarios in detail, read my story.

  7. BBC Verify

    How much could the Makerfield by-election, and possible Manchester mayoral election, cost?published at 07:47 BST

    By Anthony Reuben

    When Labour’s National Executive Committee blocked Andy Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election in January, one of the reasons it gave was the cost of holding an election for a new Greater Manchester mayor if he became an MP.

    If Burnham is selected as a candidate for the Makerfield by-election, the rules would allow him to stand in a Parliamentary election while still being mayor, but if he won then he would have to resign his mayoralty.

    The Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) told BBC Verify that the 2024 mayoral election cost it £4,719,754. The GMCA’s funding includes grants from central government and money raised from taxpayers locally.

    In addition, there is also the cost of the Makerfield by-election after Josh Simons announced he is standing down to make way for Burnham.

    The maximum cost that returning officers can claim back for Parliamentary elections is set out in legislation that specifies it for each constituency, external.

    The figure for Makerfield is £226,208.

  8. Labour has held Makerfield seat for decadespublished at 07:15 BST

    A map showing where the Makerfield constituency is in the UK

    Labour MP for Makerfield Josh Simons announced on Thursday he would resign to pave the way for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to run for a seat in the Commons.

    Simons won the Greater Manchester seat in the 2024 election. It was his first tilt for Parliament.

    The constituency boundaries were changed slightly in that election, but the seat has been Labour-held for decades.

    In the 2024 election, Simons won with 18,202 votes - 45.2% - with Reform UK coming second with 12,803 votes, 31.8% of the vote.

    You can see the full 2024 general election results for Makerfield on the BBC here.

  9. Burnham has been a 'nightmare for the Labour Party,' says MPpublished at 07:00 BST

    Labour MP Neil Coyle speaking to the media outside Portcullis House in London in 2016Image source, PA Media

    A Labour MP has described how Andy Burnham has been a "nightmare for the Labour Party" and that he does not think "he can ride to the rescue".

    Neil Coyle tells BBC Newsnight that Burnham has been a good mayor of Manchester but he has been saying he wants to take over since Keir Starmer won a massive majority.

    "Frankly, some of us are sick of it," he says.

    He adds: "I've had dozens of ... members of the public emailing, phoning, texting, stopping me in the street to say, what on earth is he thinking of? This is so unhelpful."

    Coyle also says organising the by-election could have a "huge cost to Manchester with no guarantees that Labour will win in that seat".

    "It is a terrible scenario, entirely self-inflicted, and the NEC (National Executive Committee) should be stronger at standing up to the egos of one man," he adds.

  10. Burnham cleared to run for selection in Makerfield by-electionpublished at 06:41 BST

    Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham sits in a car outside his homeImage source, Reuters

    Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is one step closer to returning to Westminster, having been cleared by Labour's ruling body to run for selection in the Makerfield by-election.

    Josh Simons announced he would resign as MP for Makerfield, paving the way for a potential return for Burnham. The mayor is widely expected to try and challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer as Labour Party leader.

    The BBC understands the by-election is likely to take place on 18 June.

    Talk of a leadership contest has dominated Westminster following bruising election results for the Labour Party last week.

    Its deputy leader Lucy Powell said on Friday that Burnham was needed as a "key player" in Westminster.

    Burnham's leadership ambitions are no secret - but there are several hurdles he needs to overcome if he wants to ultimately challenge the PM.

    First, he needs to be selected as the local party's candidate. Then he faces the challenge of winning the by-election.

    If he wins, Burnham will then need to secure the backing of 81 Labour MPs if he wants to launch a leadership challenge against Starmer.

    Meanwhile, Wes Streeting - who resigned as health secretary on Wednesday saying he had "lost confidence" in the PM - has enough support to trigger a race, allies say.

    It's also widely believed that former deputy PM Angela Rayner may also throw her hat in the ring, having now resolved her tax affairs with HMRC.

    We'll bring you key updates throughout the day.