(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: Friday 5 November, 15:00hrs GMT)
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Forecast Summary:
(PPN = Precipitation)
Emphasis: Increasing confidence sees Friday to remain dry or largely so - possible arrival of some afternoon showers aside - before a thundery trough/cold front moving north brings threat of wet weather overnight into Saturday AM. The remainder of Saturday sees further thunderstorms (possibly severe, with torrential downpours in places), showers or prolonged spells of rain likely during the morning; still a threat of showers (some heavy) continuing into the FP3/quali windows. Currently good inter-model agreement for Sunday to be dry or largely so for the race, with a fairly low % chance of some showers forming later PM.
Friday: CONFIDENCE HIGH: Sunny spells and dry for much of the day, before cloud increases later PM, bringing showers/t-storms possibly by late afternoon but more especially into the evening and then overnight. Chance of PPN 25% until end of FP2. Hot; Max 29C. Breezier later. Wind NNW-NNE
Saturday: CONFIDENCE MODERATE-HIGH (PPN totals subject to some doubt): Cloudy. Outbreaks of rain or showers/t-storms arriving overnight and continuing into the morning, heavy at times, some severe t-storms possible. A continued periodic threat of some further heavy showers / spells of rain appearing throughout the afternoon, yielding some very wet conditions on track. Chance of PPN 90%. Cooler. Max 21C. Wind light-moderate, variable; mostly S.
Sunday: CONFIDENCE HIGH: Perhaps more widespread early cloud, but this breaking to offer sunny spells for remainder of the day. Some deeper convective cloud build-up is likely later into the afternoon with a few (mostly light) showers possible, but the balance currently firmly favours dry conditions. Chance of PPN 25%. Max 23C. Wind light-moderate, SE-ESE.
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Synopsis & Forecast Evolution:
Fri. Update, based on 00 & 06UTC model output:
Pretty good inter-model agreement now for the next 24-36hrs, with the cold front and associated thundery band now very evident on IR satellite loop (see link above) steadily approaching from the SW. The resultant rainfall later Friday overnight and into Saturday has potential to be heavy at times, albeit the actual extremes of PPN accumulation remain open to uncertainty. Recent runs of GFS have turned to become one of the more extreme solutions, falling somewhat closer into line with earlier output throughout the medium range from most other operational centres. However, the variation in rainfall modelling between models still needs emphasising; e.g., through the next 24hrs, Brazilian global output (RSPAS) offers fairly conservative rain totals across much of São Paulo (<5mm), while their regional 20-km resolution model (ETA-20) concurs with GFS and some others (including UKMO and ECMWF) on significant accumulations of between 40-100mm. As explained in my update yesterday, there's ample potential for mass convergence and organisation of the thundery zone during it's northward passage and the potential for severe weather certainly cannot be discounted during Friday night and Saturday. Could we see a repeat of scenes from last year's event? Very possible, but timing will be critical.
Meanwhile, the models still hold onto the notion of a dry (or drier) affair on Sunday. The upper trough is expected to lose intensity, albeit some models vary their handling of prevailing flow at mid and upper levels, thus reaching different conclusions of the position and amplitude/phasing of the trough and associated PPN. Current consensus sees the rain further to the NE, with moisture convergence activated across the Amazon and across to the Atlantic coasts, yielding thunderstorms once again but not affecting São Paulo. Still subject to some flux, for sure, but for now the prospect of a dry race remaiins the stronger bet.
Thurs. Update, based on 00 & 12UTC model output:
There's growing inter-model and inter-run continuity now, with little significant to add to the general theme described since the outset of this blog. Much of Friday will remain dry and fair, but with deeper convective development into the afternoon (perhaps even by FP2) and evening, heralding the arrival of the cold front from the south. This becomes a dominant feature overnight into Saturday, with most models tending towards clearance (of the main PPN band) by around midday on Saturday, but the finer detail of local rainfall threat shouldn't be taken too literally, given the varied handling of frontal PPN spatio-temporal extent by different models. Some models - notably ECMWF, UKMO, CMC and Brazilian regional NWP output - have been bullish about the wet weather potential for Saturday throughout the medium range lead-up. Much like we saw in Korea, GFS has somewhat turned around to fall more into line with these solutions, but with inevitable run-to-run oscillations re finer detail. I expect this to remain so right up to the wire: after all, ignoring the mesoscale continuity, a dozen miles will make a huge difference in terms of how the thundery band clears (or not) ahead of the track sessions on Saturday, thus dictating fortunes on the circuit. Radars at the ready, folks...
There's a cocktail of critical upper and low-level atmospheric dynamics coming into play, including potential for localised mass convergence; import of moist air via low-level jet (LLJ) out of the vast Amazon basin and consequently, a prospect of seeing a more organised structure of any frontal/trough passage, offering a risk of heavy downpours in places. The fairly low pre-frontal pressure gradient is significant, however. GFS (and some other models) still prefer a somewhat discontinuous feature from Atlantic into the continental interior, making the local PPN accumulation even harder to reliably call, whereas others (including UKMO) suggest a more coherent band of heavy rain, with slower rate of clearance during Saturday. Of relevance here is how regional Brazilian modellling for Sao Paulo (i.e., ETA20, ETA40) tend to concur with UKMO and ECMWF in threatening higher amounts of PPN, in contrast to some other global output (e.g., GFS) - this all courtesy of differences in how the upper level flow is synthesised.
Either way, the potential for heavy rain (plus low but no less emphasised threat of severe t-storms) at some stage early Saturday comes with high forecast confidence: a wet, damp or drying track being the likely outcome for FP3 and possibly quali too. Any cloud breaks PM will add insolation effects and bolster a threat of further localised showers, hence the % chance of some rain never really diminishes to any significant degree during the periods of track action. It could prove knife-edge, not least given the latent drama surrounding this race and it's importance for the championship tables...
Sunday still looks a far better affair, with a goood deal of dry and largely sunny weather prevailing and a broadly low but not insignificant threat of afternoon light showers (as exemplified by both UKMO and ECMWF output)). Further model runs are needed to lock-down the likely chance of these, but at least broad inter-model consensus offers a high chance for a dry or largely dry race.
Weds. Update, based on 00UTC model output:
A largely similar story to my original entry and some better continuity - of sorts - is now emerging. The broadscale evolution has good inter-model agreement, with the upper trough dominant from overnight Friday and then throughout Saturday; a cold front moving north later Friday overnight into Saturday AM. Inevitably, each model handles the precipitation signal somewhat differently, i.e., the areal extent of showers and timing of frontal clearance northwards. In short, no model can be wholly trusted on this level of detail, not least at this range in a convective regime. Importantly, the new runs of ECMWF, UKMO and CMC are a tad more progressive (albeit not by much) in easing the frontal band of showers and t-storms northwards through Saturday morning to possibly clear Interlagos by midday (or indeed earlier). GFS still remains the most progressive in this respect, with good continuity; similarly Eta-20 regional modelling now follows it's lead. It also has the primary PPN signal restricted to overnight Fri-Sat, followed by further late afternoon/evening showers on a trough post-front. This sort of shortwave feature (plus any local diurnal shower development) inevitably keeps a threat of some showers still present into the afternoon, but there's a fair chance of the wettest conditions having passed ahead of FP3 and quali, perhaps by some margin. Sunday, meanwhile, continues to look dry or very largely so, with good inter-model support for this outcome (as earlier noted) and a dry race expected.
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(original entry follows)
So, are we ready for the drama? Interlagos seems to have an annual ability to offer heart-stopping moments - not least in the last three championship-deciding events there. And if there's a last weather-borne banana skin to await the 2010 title contenders, it will surely appear here at São Paulo, rather than at Abu Dhabi...
The potential is certainly there for Brazil's lively spring weather to play some part in the destiny of this year's title hopes. The key focus is on Saturday, when the possibility of (at least periodically) wet weather will be of most concern for teams and drivers as the early forecast evolves.
The key models employed for this forecast blog are the global models from UK MetOffice (UKMO); ECMWF, US-GFS, Canada's CMC, Japan's JMA, US-NOGAPS and the regional (20km resolution) output from Brazil's INPE/CPTEC. During the later stages of Friday, an upper trough elongates northwards out of Argentina, with a surface low spinning-up offshore to the east. Up aloft, the polar jetstream winds loop northwards to define the upper trough axis, offering potential for inclement weather to gather below. The subtropical jet lies just to the north. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to become increasingly more prevalent beneath this vigorous cocktail of upper forcing, aided locally by daytime maxima climbing into the mid/upper 20's.
As the weekend advances, the trough expands up through southern Brazil into Saturday, before relaxing eastwards into Sunday. Meanwhile, just to the north, the SACZ (South Atlantic Convergence Zone - a critical component of Brazilian weather patterns) sits almost quasi-stationary, delivering frequent thunderstorms stretching over a vast band from the depths of the Amazon basin down towards SE Brazil. The intensity and positioning of the SACZ - shown to be allied to phasing of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events - is the most important driving force behind any extreme spring-summer rainfall events occuring in São Paulo.
Friday looks largely or entirely dry during the two free practice sessions, with sunny spells and turning somewhat breezier into the afternoon. Model continuity for this outcome has been essentially consistent throughout the medium range output from all operational centres. This dry spell precedes the increasing influence of the upper trough and surface cold front easing northwards into Brazil later into the evening and night. Surface pressure steadily falls, the cloud cover thicken-up and heralds a streadily increasing % chance of showers later.
At the time of writing, the most pessemistic forecasts for Saturday come from the very same models that performed so admirably when foretelling of inclement conditions a fortnight ago in Korea.
ECMWF, UKMO and CMC are largely in agreement (albeit with nuances of timing differences) in developing a sharper, thundery feature along the frontal band during early hours and keeping it largely in-situ through the day (almost a component of the SACZ), with resultant potential for more prolonged outbreaks of rain at times and generally a lot more cloud across Interlagos. Temperatures will fall back towards the mid 20's. It's noteworthy how the wetter signal for Saturday is also reflected in the Brazilian Eta-20 regional modelling, especially into the afternoon (see latest São Paulo meteogram, link at the top of this blog), thus offering pretty good support for the EC, UKMO and CMC solutions. ECMWF's EPSgram for São Paulo (NB: not available publically on the web) is a fairly decent replica of the Eta-20 solution, too.
GFS, on the other hand, is more progressive and takes the frontal band northwards quicker (it also wants the SACZ further north, too), with the shower threat easing away before qualifying and skies tending to clear somewhat. Of course, taking the precipitation distribution from GFS (or any other model) at face value in such a convective set-up is a mug's game, because they're only ever providing a broad brush signal for the regional & local potential, not the actuality!
So, adopting the necessary 'wide-angle' view across all the various model output, very clearly the likelihood of rain at some stage during Saturday is very high, but the comparative speed of this clearing through Saturday is the critical element to dictate wet weather potential into the windows of FP3 and qualifying. Some mainstream forecast providers (e.g., MeteoGroup) offer up to 99% precipitation chance for Saturday, which seems quite reasonable taken across the 24-hr window. However, for periods of track action it may prove closer to 20-40% in terms of site-specific probability. The outcome? Anyone's guess!! Better inter-model continuity is awaited...
But either way, the models do then tend to converge in offering Sunday's dry or largely dry prospects. The upper trough relaxes to a more zonal pattern aloft; the surface front/trough is by then further north and swallowed-up into the broader SACZ convective band over SE Brazil. Later into the afternoon, clouds will tend to bubble-up more readily across Interlagos, aided by insolation and a reasonable amount of CAPE, but any resultant showers are likely to be lighter affairs and more broadly scattered. So, there's more than a fighting chance for this year's race to remain a dry affair.
I'll of course keep you updated on how the model runs this week shape-up prospects for what promises to be a truly thrilling event - wet or dry!
.
]]>
(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: Friday 22 October, 18:40hrs BST)
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Forecast Summary:
(PPN = Precipitation)
Emphasis: High confidence for dry Friday; Saturday's FP3/Quali sessions also expected to remain dry. Improving inter-model continuity suggests a threat of rain arriving into Sunday, with increasing potential to affect the race.
Friday: CONFIDENCE HIGH: Sunny spells and dry. Chance of PPN 5%. Max 22C. Breezy at times. Wind ENE.
Saturday: CONFIDENCE HIGH: Turning cloudier during the day. Rather breezy again. Expected to remain dry throughout FP3/Quali. Chance of PPN 30% until end of quali, but rain arriving late evening / towards midnight. Max 21C. Wind ENE.
Sunday: CONFIDENCE MODERATE (improving): Mostly cloudy. Rain expected to have arrived overnight, albeit heaviest PPN expected further to the south. Possible that wet weather will have departed before race start, but this remains open to a high degree of uncertainty. Chance of PPN 70%. Max 19C. Breezy. Wind ENE.
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Synopsis & Forecast Evolution:
Update to original entry (below):
Friday Update, based on 12z Model runs: There's closer agreement generally now between the main operational centres, with a high chance of rain falling across the circuit at some stage later Saturday and into Sunday. This has been strongly signalled for some time in the ECMWF-ENS output for Mokpo; ditto (with good continuity) by Canada's GM, the UKMO-GM, Japan's GM and (on and off) by NOGAPS. Korea's own KMA modelling and meteogram spread offers a similar idea. The US-GFS has tended to play catch-up of late, now bringing rain overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning, but clears it well ahead of race start. This solution has about 50% support and we'll see if the 00z GFS (and other op centres) build on the theme of dry weather and / or only light showery outbreaks of rain prevailing by the time the lights go out. Certainly not impossible, in my view. The Canadian model falls into a roughly similar camp, with fairly heavy overnight and morning rain trending much lighter ahead of race start. Meanwhile, the Japanese, EC and UKMO modelling still threaten outbreaks of rain (some heavy) continuing into the race window. The Canadian output had also doggedly stuck to this idea virtually all week, with UKMO not far behind in terms of continuity and remaining so in the latest run. ECMWF's output is best summarised in a remark from the Met Office's Deputy Chief Forecaster made to me earlier today, who - after analysing the Mokpo EP meteogram - concluded: "....(there's) clearly a high chance for some heavy rain, either before the race, if not actually during it." So it's a very finely balanced situation; further runs are needed to gauge continuity on the areal spread of heaviest rainfall and the timing of any clearance off eastwards. Broadly speaking, a middle ground approach is to anticipate rain arriving overnight and into the morning (= green track), mostly clearing away to the east before midday but with potential for some lighter showery outbreaks continuing for a while into the afternoon.
Thursday Update, based on 12z Model runs:
Today's ensembles maintain a trend - already offered with high forecast confidence some days ago - for dry running to prevail throughout Friday's sessions and a strong prospect of the same outcome on Saturday. The focus of forecast attention remains very much fixed on Sunday, with a growing prospect of rain arriving during the day, courtesy of the ex-Megi remnants described in the original entry (below). As also highlighted below, this threat of wet weather has been consistently offered by some models as a minority to 50% solution, while the US-GFS - suffering some earlier upstream divergence in handling Megi's track - has continued to oscillate in solutions for Sunday.
Crucially however, it has tended to erratically edge the prospect of rain northwards in successive recent runs. It's 12z output now comes into broader, if not exact, agreement with most other operational centres (ECMWF, UKMO, JMA, CMC, NOGAPS etc.) by bringing a prospect of rain across the extreme SW and S districts of South Korea throughout Sunday. Other models are more bullish, with a more northerly, extensive threat of rain and in the case of CMC (exhibiting strong continuity), offering showers potentially slightly earlier from overnight Sat-Sun. The timing of this - plus precise degree of northerly extent of any precipitation - will be the critical factors during race day.
Clearly, tomorrow's runs will be important in terms of continuity (or lack thereof); CMC, UKMO and some others having already 'led the way' in threatening a wet or potentially wet race, with GFS tending to play catch-up in the last 24hrs. I'll update you all again tomorrow, by which time we'll have seen just how the teams fare on the new circuit in dry, fine conditions during FP1 and 2!
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(Original Entry follows)
While the Suzuka forecast was a (rare) example of great inter-model continuity and bullish forecast confidence - even quite a few days ahead of the event - assessing weather prospects at this inaugural Korean event have been proving quite the opposite!
Forecast confidence is now starting to improve and consolidate. Currently, only the weather for Friday's practice sessions can be foretold with a very high degree of certainty: it's looking dry, fine and rather breezy for those. The various models are starting to show increasing agreement for the rest of the track action to stay dry, too.
Now, I hope you can keep up with this next bit - but it's pretty critical in determining just how dry (or not) the new and doubtless rather slick asphalt will remain by the end of the race weekend!
The complications emerge especially during Sunday, much of them courtesy of how extra-tropical remnants from Typhoon 15W, named 'Megi', track and evolve through the mid to latter parts of next week.
Right now, Megi - located SE of Hong Kong - is tracking very much as anticipated, steered around the southern boundary of a deep-layered mid-level subtropical ridge. With time, the western portion of that ridge of high pressure will subside due to mid-latitude influences coming east out of China, while the typhoon itself is expected to continue it's more poleward track.
Megi is currently expected to make landfall into S.E. China / Hong Kong, according to the official model output from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Therafter however, the complex evolution of the dissipating core - and extent and distribution of it's northward rainfall outflow - are all influenced by various factors, including a trough emerging south-eastward through mid-central China. However, it will certainly dissipate and weaken as the poleward journey continues during the week, through the increasing influence of land and decreasing potency of vertical wind shear. But the northerly-orientated outflow of rainfall and associated 'lobes' of low pressure will remain pretty noteworthy features on weather charts for a few days still, some of this possibly crossing - or at least grazing -South Korea later during the race weekend. However, this is most likely to occur post-race and overnight int Monday.
The main 'free' forecast model output available on the web, feeding many automated popular forecast websites, is the US-GFS model. Importantly, it has persisted in offering a divergent track in certain respects compared to the collective (and very similar) output of other dynamic models (e.g., ECMWF, UKMO, NOGAPS, GFDN). On the basis of consensual expert analysis, the GFS track you might see on some weather websites is still presently considered the 'outlier' solution by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and is, in their words, "....deemed as unlikely, considering the strength and position of the steering subtropical ridge positioned to the north."
Consequently, the GFS forecast further 'downstream' into later stages of next week may prove somewhat unreliable for south Korea (at least at this range), albeit continuity in the broader weekend prospects for Mokpo is now improving.
The UK Met Office and Canadian CMC models were both quite progressive in taking a threat of rain - some heavy - northward towards Korea into the weekend. Previous runs of UKMO suggested overnight wet weather Sat-Sun but unlikely to directly impact track sessions; CMC, meanwhile, offered a decidedly wet race. UKMO has now reverted to a dry solution for Saturday and Sunday, bringing the threat of rain only later during Sunday and into Monday. CMC, however, sticks to the notion of a very wet spell into and throughout the race window. It remains effectively alone in this very pessimistic solution (but that doesn't mean it's to be discounted!).
GFS has exhibited some pretty typical oscillations at this sort of forecast range and especially in a complex set-up. It sticks to the idea of dry weather all weekend, steering any rainfall southwards across Japan. ECMWF, meanwhile, is essentially the closest to the Megi 'official' track published by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and also looks to keep the race weekend dry or largely so.
A reasoned summary, for now at least, suggests:
- dry, sunny & breezy weather all of Friday;
- very probably dry (and again breezy, plus eventually somewhat cloudier) conditions for Saturday's sessions, and
- a dry, breezy and fairly warm race the more likely outcome, but with an uncertain, low % threat of rain appearing during the event.
I'll of course keep you updated all the way...
]]>It'll be distinctly cool, however, with the potential for a widespread ground frost in our inland areas, overnight Saturday into Sunday.
In the next few days, I dare say some newspapers will start hyperventilating. Expect to read about an imminent "Arctic Blast!"; or how "Winter Arrives!", etc., etc.
Why?
Because early next week, we'll see a transition to a colder, unsettled cyclonic pattern which draws the prevailing flow directly down from the north, accompanied by brisk winds and a more showery regime of weather across the nation.
However...
The current Met Office prognosis is hardly forewarning of 'Snowmageddon'.
Yes, we do expect to see some snow accumulation across the Scottish mountains next week; equally, there's a fair chance of transient (as opposed to lying, or disruptive) snow even falling to low levels for a while across other parts of Scotland and similarly, some districts of northern England.
The various forecast models inevitably vary in just how far south the cold 'plunge' is advected into England, but the prospects of any snow appearing further southwards are extremely limited. In fact, it looks barely worth a punt.
The broader theme will be a chilly, windy and occasionally showery spell of weather through a fair part of the next working week.
We can expect periodic bands of showers - some likely to be a tad lively, offering hail and a crack or two of thunder - to arrive on the brisk and very noticeable northerly flow, but with brighter spells dominating between these, across most districts.
Beyond that, the latest Met Office longer term (i.e., in medium range) analysis keeps things somewhat on the cool side, but no early or widespread advent of winter weather in the true sense.
Best to keep the sledge tucked-away in the garage for now... but for sure, you can dust-off those warm coats and gloves!
]]>(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: Saturday 9 October, 21:05hrs BST)
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Nowcast / Forecast Updates:
Saturday, 2100BST: As per model expectations (and they've been excellent this weekend), the rain has now left the circuit by 0500 Local and I'm expecting a dry or largely dry scenario to now prevail for the rest of Sunday. Good news for qualifying, then! One or two light showers are still possible, but it's a low % point probability and the real hazard for drivers is straying off the asphalt and into very sodden run-off / gravel trap areas. So, quali could still be a tricky affair! One wheel off the kerbs could spell disaster.
Saturday, 1150BST: So, the 'worst case scenario' alluded to in my forecast below - i.e., a potential for undriveable conditions during qualifying - unfortunately became reality. We'll see a slow and rather erratic improvement in conditions for the rest of this evening and tonight in Suzuka, but JMA weather advisories and warning currently remain in force, not least to cater for further heavy pulses of rain easing northwards along ripple or wave-like perturbations on the frontal zone. Areas of flooding, with landslip risk, are a real possibility in some parts of Mie Prefecture. The postponed qualifying on Sunday (10am local; 0200BST) will take place after the rain departs; current modelled estimates take it's back edge of away northwards from Mie by around 04-0600 local. The circuit will thus still be pretty tricky for qualifying - especially the sodden margins & run-offs - but steadily drying. We'll then see hints of the cloud deck breaking with some brighter spells developing progressively towards midday. During the qualifying window, there's still a (small-ish) chance of a few light showers - these are catered for as a 30% chance of PPN by JMA's forecasters (and with good inter-model support). The race, meanwhile, remains as previously forecast: dry, with brighter or sunny spells; much warmer and with a low (10%) prospect of any further showers.
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Forecast Summary:
(PPN = Precipitation)
Emphasis: Unsettled conditions developing PM & overnight Friday, bringing spells of heavy rain Saturday, especially PM, continuing into Sunday AM. Inclement weather will have cleared well ahead of race start.
Friday: Sunny spells; mostly dry but with a chance of a few showers later PM as cloud increases. Rain arriving through the late afternoon and overnight, heavy at times. Chance of PPN 30%. Max 24C. Wind light, SSE.
Saturday: Overcast and breezy, with outbreaks of rain throughout the day, turning heavy at times and especially during the afternoon and evening. Up to 50mm accumulation plausible. Continuing wet & rather windy overnight. Chance of PPN 90%. Max 21C. Wind freshening / brisk SE.
Sunday: Further outbreaks of rain through a cloudy morning, easing by mid-morning. Dry and probably brighter by race start; i.e., a damp circuit then steadily drying(?). A few light showers still possible during early afternoon. Chance of PPN 80% AM; 20% PM. Max 25C. Wind moderating, predominantly NW.
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Synopsis & Forecast Evolution:
There's now broad inter-model consensus for a tropical low / wave-like depression to form off Taiwan during Thursday and move NNE towards Japan. The centre eventually tracks just offshore east of Honshu throughout the weekend and deepens, with an arm of the jetstream directly aloft - offering significant potency and fluidity in the eventual degree / extent of bad weather across Suzuka, especially throughout Saturday.
Currently, the most pessimistic solutions from major operational centres (e.g., Canadian CMC; UKMO, NOGAPS and to an extent, GFS) offer a very wetr propect for Qualifying. This is likely to prove the major point of weather-related interest / uncertainty in an already critical race weekend for the five championship protagonists.
Day-by-Day:
Whilst Friday has a pretty decent chance of dry running for P1 and P2, the onset of inclement conditions appear later into the evening and become dominant during Saturday. With FP3 and qualifying in mind, this will be real concern for the teams.
As the low tracks north, it is likely to become very developmental across Okinawa during Saturday and with various wavelike / ripple perturbations running ahead (possibly forming a secondary low centre) into southern areas of Japan, offering a real potential for heavy showers, including across Mie Prefecture (and Suzuka, located therein).
All the models agree on some grim weather throughout Saturday and especially later in the day. As soil moisture deficit continues to shrink from later Friday onwards, substantial run-off and standing water could become a real issue around the circuit by Saturday. Timing will be critical as the model continuity improves: i.e., will conditions possibly worsen ahead of qualifying, or after? It's more likely to be after... but impossible to call reliably until we see reality unfolding on radar. With 50+mm rainfall accumulation not out of the bounds of probability, there's obviously a possibility of undriveable (red-flagged) weather but this can be considered a fairly low risk. The worse conditions presently look set for the late afternoon and evening.
Either way, the low centre continues to look very threatening by 00GMT (0900hrs local) on Sunday morning but thankfully, it's impact on the actual race should then be steadily reducing.
In broadscale terms, the low centre is likely to be located just offshore from Mie Prefecture during the early morning and tracking NNE, if the currently fairly good inter-model agreement can be trusted.
The precipitation (and trailing cold front sitting off to the south) then ease off to the north quite quickly during Sunday morning, so the race itself will be dry or largely so. However, the earlier rain will have kept the circuit very sodden during the morning and I'd imagine the margins / run-off areas / section beneath 130R crossover will remain treacherous!.
One possible complication towards the early afternoon is any degree of wrap-around occlusion debris swinging back from the north towards Mie, bringing a few light showers, especially with any sunny spells adding to daytime heating and instability. With this in mind, I've retained a 20% point probability of afternoon precipitation and I note the Japanese Meteorological Agency do likewise. However, it's very likely for this critical race to run entirely dry, without further weather interruption. Exactly what grid line-up we'll have by the end of Saturday might well have provided more than enough weather drama, anyway!
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(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: Friday 10 September, 06:20hrs BST)
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Forecast Summary:
(PPN = Precipitation)
Emphasis: A dry & fine spell of settled weather expected across all three days.
Friday: Sunny and fine with some scattered convective cloud development. Chance of PPN <5%. Max 23C. Wind light & variable, predominantly SW.
Saturday: Dry, sunny and settled. Max 23C. Wind light S-SSE.
Sunday: Continuing sunny, dry and fine; some convective cloud development PM. Max 23C. Wind light, variable, predominantly SSW.
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Synopsis & Forecast Evolution:
I returned from holiday very early this morning and immediately settled on the sofa to watch the Belgium Grand Prix, having successfuly avoided all newsmedia and potential 'spoilers' whilst away! It was quite a strange experience, watching recordings of qualifying and race 'as live', hoping the forecast updates I'd been giving while abroad via Twitter proved correct. As it transpired, the Spa weather proved much as expected... and what a fantastic race it was!
After those varied 'banana skins' of Ardennes weather, it's a very different forecast prospect for this next event in Monza. We're now into the driest month of the year, in terms of average conditions for Milan and environs.
I've been catching-up with the model output and the general consensus and continuity between the main operational centres looks pretty decent this time - all of it leaning strongly in favour of a dry and settled spell between Friday and Sunday.
In broadscale terms, an upper trough and vortex will provide periodically inclement conditions into Thursday, with attendant showers across parts of northern Italy likely to then ease away southwards and eastwards overnight, long before Friday's action gets underway.
Friday itself is a day of transition to fine conditions; the influence of the upper trough relaxing; surface pressure rising and the risk of further showers greatly reduced. It should prove a dry and fine day for FP1 & 2, with just a very small % chance of isolated showers as the residual of upper forcing slips away eastwards from northern Italy into the Adriatic.
Into the weekend, ridge conditions continue developing from the west and indeed more broadly to the east as well. It's partly courtesy of an extension of the Azores High, which will become a dominant feature by Sunday across western Europe, with a high cell also located towards Russia.
Both Saturday and Sunday thus look dry, fine and settled with plenty of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud and convective infill will tend to develop by the afternoon perhaps, more especially so later on Sunday. A dry race therefore, with ambient temperature inthe low to mid 20's C bracket and light winds.
The run-to-run continuity from ECMWF, UKMO and GFS is very good, so forecast confidence remains high for dry running to prevail during all practice sessions, qualifying and race. I'll keep you updated on any change of emphasis.
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Spa-Francorchamps, 27-29 August 2010 (Round 13)
(Updated Tuesday, 10:30hrs)
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It's only a quick blog this time, folks, as I'm away from tomorrow (Tuesday) for a fortnight and will resume a full F1 forecast blog just ahead of the next one in Monza, albeit probably online only by Thursday ahead of that race weekend...sorry for any inconvenience!
Well, it's the first time I've missed a live F1 event in some 13 years, so I'll be keeping well away from all newsmedia as I return to my underwater paradise to photograph yet more fish species on Red Sea reefs. I'll catch-up on all the (recorded) Spa weekend action immediately when I return!
Broadscale Weather Prospects
It's always a risk publishing any sort of forecast this early and with no chance to modify it later, but hey, here goes!! But please do bear in mind this was written on Monday, so much is likely to change between now and the cars taking to the track on Friday morning. If I can offer any useful update from Egypt.... I will try!
It's been a rather divergent forecast evolution across the model runs until the last 12hrs, since when some semblance of consensus has emerged between the main operational centres concerning the Fri-Sun period and probable outcome at Spa.
We always hear (albeit often used incorrectly and vaguely) about the 'microclimate' at this track but the reality is that local conditions are inevitably dictated by the mesoscale situation, with nuances in this part of the Ardennes then dictated through varied orographic influences. In other words, pretty much the same story and forecast headache encountered in any heavily-wooded uplands across the globe.
This weekend will be no different.
It's a wet and breezy spell looming into Thursday (Spa has a 35 chance of seeing rain over 20mm, via a vigorous Atlantic low, transiting eastwards, which will bring inclement weather to the UK during Wednesday). Therafter, high pressure will attempt to ridge eastwards into Belgium for Friday, but showery conditions will still dominate across much of northern France and into Benelux.
Although it could remain mostly dry, I wouldn't count on it! Showery outbreaks of (mostly light) rain are very likely, not least forced through orographic influences. Worth noting that the UKMO's MOGREPS-15 mapping of rainfall probability exceeding 0.5mm offers the chance of rain across Spa as 60+% during Friday. So, I'd be surprised if the day stays entirely dry throughout.
Depending on which model you choose, it could be distinctly cool too - important to stress this factor; for example, ambient temperature via the UKMO Global Model is only 15C. Brrrr!!!
I'm expecting Saturday to be a fairly decent affair; some sunny spells; the anticyclonic ridging ever more influential but so mostly dry weather probable, but with a chance of a light shower forced-up again by the higher ground especially. So again, no guarantee of entirely dry conditions into FP3 and qualifying, but a pretty good chance for this outcome.
I haven't seen the ECMWF-EPS 00z output this morning (I'm about to leave!), but the latest from them (12z OP) shows the probability of rainfall at Spa on Saturday exceeding 1mm (in the 24hr period) as greater than 35% but less than 65%, so a reduced risk when compared to Friday.
The localised detail will clearly remain the key issue as we approach Friday onwards. Sorry I won't be around to add this crucial nowcast stuff for you all, but I hope the rainfall radar, latest observations and other links I've listed above will provide some help!
Sunday is a tricky one, and the latest output I'd seen from ECMWF and UKMO are largely now in line with other operational centres, notably GFS and Canada's GM.
All the centres agree on a firm mid-Atlantic block established by the high cell, with a depression set to skirt-down across the North Sea and swing frontal rain into parts of NW Europe, although any extension of this threat southwards into Belgium will be tricky to call at this juncture. It could well bring a few light showers and patchy outbreaks of rain into Spa-Francorchamps as the race is underway, but crucially....
....EC, UKMO and GFS have the low development and attendant precipitation further to the north and east, into Holland, Denmark and N Germany, whilst mostly dry, ridged conditions prevail into Spa for Sunday with variable cloud cover.
As things stand, I'm more tempted by dry or mostly dry conditions on race day... but there's plenty of time for things to change (and you will all see the final result in real-time; I'll have to record it and watch later!)
]]>SUN. 19:30BST: So, here we go. The rain approaches....
The broad theme remains unchanged, bar some key differences since my last update. The rainfall totals are only slightly diminished - 70mm versus 80 for certain areas - but it's still a fair number of districts seeing 30-40mm between around 10pm tonight through to 3am tomorrow. Some parts of the SW will see these sorts of totals in only 3 hours - and that's likely to be bothersome.
My major concerns for very heavy rain are parts of Somerset (e.g., Crewkerne, Chard, Wincanton, up towards Frome) and much of Wiltshire. Localised flooding seems possible in the 'flashy' river catchments for these areas.
Bristol, Bath, N. Somerset and S. Glos. also likely to see the heaviest (short-term) rain totals experienced so far this year.
As for the winds, the sting jet potential is now expected further east, off the coast of the Netherlands especially and with highest English winds probably further south on the Norfolk coast, rather than through the Wash as previously expected. Either way, some nasty weather approaches; the M4 corridor will NOT be a good place to drive around midnight, for sure.
SUN. 08:45BST: The Met Office has now issued an Early Warning for tonight's event, with 80+mm of rain (and widely up to 30mm) expected to fall during just 3 hours in some areas within a swathe extending from the SW across parts of southern-central England. The latest high-resolution (MetO-UKpp) modelling for the period between 10pm to 1am BST has a strong signal for some very heavy rain, notably through districts of Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, N. Somerset, Wiltshire, Hampshire, Berkshire and Oxfordshire. A further concern comes a little later, as the rapidly-deepening low crosses East Anglia, where the forecast modelling suggests a sting-jet development could bring strong wind gusts (over 50kts) to coastal areas of Lincolnshire and N. Norfolk by around mid-morning on Monday.
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Question:
What happens when you cross an upper trough moving eastwards, with some inherently warm, moist air easing-up from the south?
Answer:
Rain. Lots.
Later on Sunday evening, all eyes (at least from the weather-watching community) will be trained on developments from the southwest.
We'll be watching the very soggy - and possibly troublesome - consequences resulting from a plume of high (16-18C) wet bulb potential temperature (WBPT) airmass spreading at low level out of the Bay of Biscay, while an upper trough from the west interacts with it, as an area of low pressure crosses southern England.
The likely result rather varies, depending which numerical weather prediction (NWP) model you place utmost faith in.
In an Anglo-French agreement upon some highly complex mathematics, the UK Met Office's NAE - and the French equivalent model, called Arpege - concur on a very wet solution, spinning-up a deepening area of low pressure that crosses southern districts of England overnight Sunday-Monday. It could generate 50-60mm of rain in places and winds gusting over 50 knots. The NAE offers the wettest area (50mm rain) around Bristol and adjacent South Gloucestershire.
Oh yes - and it's still summer. Honest.
Conversely, the Met Office's Global Model sits broadly aligned with two other 'pre-eminent' forecast models - namely ECMWF (it's my favourite) and the US-GFS - in offering a somewhat less deep or 'flatter' low, but nonethless bringing some eye-catching rainfall totals through the same overnight period.
Either way, if you adopt a consensual approach - as the Met Office experts in Exeter have done - it looks like some pretty nasty weather will affect much of SW / S / S-Central England and Wales into the early hours of Monday. The GFS, for example, still delivers some 30mm of rain in 6hrs during Monday morning... and it's a less extreme solution.
With some 30 to 40% of the individual runs (members) of ECMWF's ensemble also agreeing with the rapidly deepening modelling generated from NAE and Arpege, it's no wonder the Met Office has issued a timely advisory for the potential of severe weather.
So lucky me then, as I plan a crafty, brolly-armed strategy for running to my car at around 03:25hrs on Monday morning, wearing a suit, ahead of working our BBC Breakfast shift from 0400hrs.
I'll keep you advised here of the forecast developments...
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The disaster came after an exceptionally wet start across the region during August 1952, culminating in a severe and prolonged thunderstorm raging above Exmoor throughout the late afternoon, evening and early night. The cumulative rainfall was truly exceptional; it all ran immediately off the already saturated moorland and cascaded with massive force and destruction through the wooded, steep valley catchments of the East and West Lyn. In Barbrook, Watersmeet and ultimately where the rivers joined at Lynmouth, death came suddenly in pitch darkness, periodically illuminated by the frequent lightning.
The resultant terror, combining tales of human tragedy and astonishing bravery, are well told elsewhere, so really require no duplication on this blog.
A few weeks ago, I was very privileged to interview one of the last survivors of that awful night, Ken Oxenholme. His original story was recorded this very day by the BBC exactly 58 years ago.
If you want to hear his thoughts of the event now, 58 years later (and I certainly did), watch Wild Weather of the West, on BBC ONE, 7.30pm, Monday September 20th.
]]>This forecast will be regularly updated. This update: Sun. 15 Aug., 10:30BST
Quick Links
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Changes of Emphasis since last update: Overcast, breezy morning on Sunday will be replaced by much sunnier weather PM; feeling warm, staying dry and winds moderating. Good chance for the evening mass ascent.
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Nowcast Updates
(These have proved popular with my Formula One blog forecast audience, so here goes!)
SUN 1020BST: Well, the forecast for cloudy skies early this morning proved correct, as a veil of fairly thick stratus spread southwest all the way from the North Sea overnight. This, combined with a rather brisk (10kt) northeasterly wiind, prevented the early mass ascent but I'm much more hopeful for later today. Post-midday, the stratus sheet should fragment and dissipate - it's already doing so anywhere east of Wiltshire and we'll gradually see this thinning process ease across Bristol, too. So, the afternoon will turn sunnier and warmer, with a maximum temperature of 23C. Should be good conditions for the Red Arrows after 4pm! Also, the surface winds should moderate later. High-resolution modelling shows that by 6pm, Ashton Court will have only 5kts surface wind (see Met Office model output for 6pm local time, below) shifting to due north rather than the earlier NE and with a possible westerly component through sea breeze influences. I am thus advising the Fiesta directors to assume that the evening mass ascent stands a good chance of being a 'go'.
SAT 2200BST: I've spent much of the day forecasting on-site at the Fiesta with Flight Director Don Cameron and Fiesta Director Clive Bailey. The showers duly appeared as expected, but nonetheless the crowds enjoyed a range of displays including Royal Navy Lynx helicopters and a very talented powerglider pilot! The Night Glow should be underway now as hoped; the last of today's dying thundery showers are tracking westwards up north of Ashton Court, with skies largely clearing now. Tomorrow's prognosis is far better, with the main weather issue for the planned early ascent being twofold: wind vector taking balloons towards Bristol Airport, plus perhaps early low cloud and mist which should readily lean towards dispersing. The rest of Sunday gets better by the hour: by mid-afternoon, sunny spells, dry and warm as temperatures reach 23C. So, it looks promising, despite the wind still vectoring balloons towards the airport... but I'm very, very hopeful we will see some flights take place.
SAT 1035BST: Unfortunately (albeit fortunately for me), this morning's spell of fairly heavy rain appeared very much as expected, associated with an occlusion and westward extension of shear vorticity aloft, which had the effect of increasing the rainfall intensity. It's all now eased southwards into Somerset, with dry but cloudy conditions following across Ashton Court. The combined poor weather prevented any mass ascent, obviously, but we should see spells of brighter weather into the afternoon. However, the next weather-related issue comes in the form of towering shower clouds after midday. The atmospheric profiles today suggest these could readily form cumulonimbus and turn thundery widely across southern England, if we see temperatures of 17C+. Cloud tops of these cells could extend up past 30,000ft, with a convergence zone aligned north-south gradually moving westwards to lie close to Bristol by early afternoon. I expect this threat of heavy showers to have passed by this evening's Night Glow, which should be dry with clear spells. Tomorrow continues to look a much, much better day in every respect. Well, I'm heading off to the Fiesta today to help with on-site forecasts and nowcasts - might see some of you there!!
FRI 1735BST: Ashton Court has thankfully dodged most of the rash of showers that have developed widely across the West Country today, but that luck might come to an end within about the next 30-40mins or so. An area of showers is now running down into SE Wales and is likely to cross the Severn and track into the Bristol area. Some moderately heavy rain is possible in places from this feature. Meanwhile, the forecast signal for a spell of wet, overcast weather early Saturday morning remains firm, which is not good news for any planned early mass ascent...
FRI 0950BST: Apparently 81 balloons managed to lift-off this morning, with Fiesta Director Clive Bailey telling me how his own flight eventually landed south of Chew Valley, encountering winds aloft around 15 to 20kts, but only 3kts at the surface on landing. So, the Met Office modelling of local windfield direction and strength has been very accurate this morning. You can see highlights of his flight - with reporter Will Glennon - on Points West this evening.
FRI 0710BST: Latest conditions are an increasing 8 knot wind, visibility over 10km; scattered clouds at 4100ft and temperature 12C.
FRI 0700BST: A number of balloons up and away; some already touching-down in Hengrove. The wind turning brisker now both aloft and at the surface.
FRI 0636BST: They're up! The first balloon is away... more to follow. Fantastic.
FRI 0626BST: A light, small-scale shower currently easing south right now past Bath is the first hint of growing instability aloft. With the breeze also picking-up steadily from now on, the balloons need to get up and away imminently, or the chance, I fear, will be lost for today...
FRI 0600BST: Looking promising! Clive Bailey says first balloon should be aloft in the next 30 mins. More to follow en-mass shortly after. Latest conditions at Lulsgate: Wind 270deg(W) at 3 kts; cloud ceiling and visibility ok; temperature 11C. Forecast all going to plan... so far!!
FRI 0500BST: A bit more cloud is now easing southwards, but with surface winds still effectively light at 7kts over at Bristol (Lulsgate) Airport, conditions still remain flyable for this fairly brief window of opportunity. I've discussed the forecast with Clive Bailey (Fiesta Director) an hour ago and he's certainly aiming for a 'go'. If they do get up, the balloons will head eastwards initially towards Bedminster; those ascending higher will then swing more to the SSE in the 15 kts gradient flow, off towards the likes of Pensford and Whitchurch.
FRI 0400BST: Conditions looking promising for this morning's planned Mass Ascent. Recent conditions have been light (5 kts) wind from the WNW; a little patchy cloud at about 4000ft and wholly dry. I'm very hopeful they'll lift-off as expected... incidentally, yesterday evening's Night Glow went ahead as hoped, despite being a bit breezy.
THUR 1800BST: Positive news this evening, as per the forecast expectations outlined below. The special shape balloon will be displayed tethered, but some other balloons are set to fly. The Night Glow later still looks good for this evening, as predicted. Enjoy!
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Forecast Summary:
The broadscale weather for this year's Fiesta is looking reasonable at times but also very changeable: sometimes rather breezy and with an occasional chance of some possibly disruptive showers, especially later on Friday and Saturday.
After an inclement start to the week, we'll gradually see an area of low pressure shift eastwards and then southwards through the North Sea, while at the same time, high pressure establishes out to the west of the British Isles.
It won't prove a very clear-cut transition, however. An upper vortex dominates across the North Sea, eager to 'block' the high development from the west; the strong jetstream winds way up aloft will bow-down southwards overhead Ireland Friday-Saturday; and one consequence of this somewhat messy 'squeeze' will be moderately breezy conditions at times during the Fiesta. The broadly northerly flow across England will also, at times, swing some showery outbreaks southwards within shortwave features, albeit Ashton Court should sit at the western extreme of this potential, with largely dry weather dominating.
The precise positioning and westward expansion of the low pressure centre out east remains subject to some flux in recent forecast models. This is a very critical aspect, as the local nuances of hour-by-hour cloud cover, windspeed and occasional chance of showers will prove the trickier elements of my forecast blog. Friday afternoon and much of Saturday carry the greatest threat of showers, some possibly turning rather heavy across parts of the West Country.
One certainty is that throughout the Fiesta, winds will be largely from the NW/NNW/N (on Sunday, NNE) across Bristol and environs.
Flights - when they're possible - will thus head out towards the ESE / SSE / SE /S of Ashton Court, i.e., away from Bristol city centre; broadly across towards Bedminster / Bishopsworth / Dundry (sometimes a bit more eastwards) and into parts of North Somerset and B&NES.
Conditions are expected to see variable - and sometimes rather widespread - cloud cover coupled with bright / sunny spells; temperatures about average for the time of year and winds largely light to moderate, at least down at ground level in Ashton Court itself.
The precise windspeeds / vectors at ground level and aloft - plus a high chance of the prevailing flow routing balloons towards Bristol International Airport airspace - are two of the weather issues I can forsee being problematic at times for organisers and pilots.
It's not a unique situation forecast-wise, by any means.
Clive Bailey is the Fiesta's Director and a hugely experienced pilot (as well as being great fun to be up aloft with, as I can recently attest!). He's overseeing the event weather forecasts for pilots and - in respect of the possible incursions towards Bristol Airport - tells me:
"We can possibly go over the top (of Lulsgate) at 3,000 feet... the best thing is being surrounded by people that want it to happen."
The airport, incidentally, has always been a very willing participant in assisting the Fiesta, whatever the conditions.
"They are great, and will do everything possible to get us away," says Clive.
The latest Met Office modelling of windfields up aloft at 600m for Thursday / Friday / overnight into Saturday suggests a pretty steady 15+ kts or so (17 mph+) and sometimes 20+ kts, so yes, it'll be brisk at times and perhaps too much for some of the flights. But hopefully, we'll see decent flyable (and tetherable!) windows of opportunity, too. For example, the low-level winds on early Friday morning look ok for the planned mass ascent at that time. The local nitty-gritty of wind forecasts will become clearer only much nearer to the time of each ascent: so fingers-crossed!
The cloudbase, although at times extensive as we see a fairly routine process of convective infill (and especially during afternoons), should be high enough to not prove a continuous concern; equally, visibility should be OK.
However....
The third problem for pilots and organisers comes in the shape of some potentially very beefy shower clouds.
On Thursday, it's very likely to remain dry: any showers should be fairly light, small-scale, restricted to the early-mid afternoon period and probably affecting districts further to the north and east.
But the very latest (Thurs PM) forecast modelling from the UK Met Office continues to throw-up a pronounced possibility of a few showers during Friday afternoon, with Saturday also rather shower-prone at times, essentially throughout the whole day.
By Sunday, I'm expecting the threat of showers to have largely passed. Bar perhaps one or two isolated light showers, it should turn into a fine, dry, fairly warm but (at times) somewhat breezy day.
Here's the current thinking on day-to-day prospects...obviously, I'll be providing greater detail as each day nears:
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Thursday: Partly cloudy; some sunny intervals. Prolonged dry spells expected with just a low chance of scattered light showers during the afternoon, these mostly out in districts to the east / NE of Ashton Court. Dry by the evening and with lighter winds. Max. temp. 20C. Wind moderate WNW; likely to be breezier through the middle of the day. NB: Gates open 12:00pm
Flying: 18:00hrs, Special Shapes Ascent. Conditions essentially good, but the chance of flying will be completely dictated by local wind parameters (turning moderate-fresh at times, which could be problematic) and possibly a scattered shower or two at that stage (very low probability). Flight direction, if we get the launch, will be to the ESE / E of Ashton Court and somewhat modified by sea breeze influences, towards Bedminster / Whitechurch and environs.
Thursday Evening: Night Glow, 21:30hrs. Should proceed as planned. Remaining settled and dry for the event; winds falling a good deal lighter and the east-facing slope at the Fiesta offering further shelter from the forecast wind direction.
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Friday: Starts dry, with some fairly clear skies at this stage and winds fairly light from the W/WNW. Looks good for the early Mass Ascent. But as the day progesses, convective developments will ease south towards midday, bringing a risk of scattered showers, some moderately heavy but risk of thunderstorms considered very low (these will occur in eastern parts of the country). A few brighter spells too but generally rather cloudy PM. Later overnight, some further showery outbreaks of rain will pass through at into Saturday. Max. temp 19C and a moderate to fresh breeze from the NNW / N.
Flying: 06:00hrs and 18:00hrs, Mass Ascents. Early ascent should be OK with a good chance of lifting-off, subject to exact wind speed / direction. However, the evening planned ascent could be curtailed by a combination of local convective development and winds.
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Saturday: Likely to be a rather grey and damp start, with extensive cloud cover; then developing into a day of fairly prolonged dry intervals, variable (probably rather extensive) cloud cover at times with some sunny intervals; and a fair number of showers across local districts, especially PM, some turning heavy in places. A real lottery in terms of the hit-or-miss wet weather probability. Winds moderate; fresher aloft; with gradient wind direction mostly from NNE to N. Max. temp 20C.
Flying: 06:00hrs and 18:00hrs, Mass Ascents. Early ascent currently looks very unlikely. Evening one might also prove difficult based on current forecast expectations; it will be subject to exact wind speed and direction and any local shower cloud development.
Saturday Evening: Night Glow, 21:30hrs. Still a low-ish shower potential but hopefully most will have faded to offer improving conditions: i.e., dry or mostly so; winds expected to be light-moderate at this stage. Assuming most (if not all) shower threat has passed; ground not too sodden and winds fall lighter, should proceed as planned assuming tethered control of balloons is not problematic.
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Sunday: Early cloud tending to disperse to offer a settled, largely dry and generally much sunnier day; the wind expected to be more from the NNE, moderately breezy at times. Fairly low probability of showers; around 30% and they'll be light and well-scattered. It will feel pleasantly warm in the sunshine; Max. temp 21C.
Flying: 06:00hrs and 18:00hrs, Mass Ascents. Subject to exact wind speed and direction (i.e., to avoid possible conflict with Bristol International Airport and excursions drifting beyond the Somerset coast!). Flight direction will be essentially to the south / SSW of Ashton Court, into North Somerset.
Red Arrows: 16:30hrs: The spectacular finale to this year's Fiesta should be unhindered by the weather; should be a full or largely full display from the RAF's maestro aerobatic team, as planned.
More updates will follow...
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(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: Sunday 1 August, 09:30hrs BST)
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Nowcast Updates: (NB - previous updates have been moved to the end of this blog)
SUN 09:25 BST: A glorious, cloudless morning in Budapest with strong sunshine across the circuit and the track temperatures will be a good deal higher than yesterday. The fine, rather hot weather will prevail through today, albeit with some fair-weather cumulus around into this afternoon and only a very small (<10%) chance of any of this developing further locally, to offer well-isolated showers. Indeed, the precipitation signal from the ensembles today is effectively just trace amounts at Budapest (1mm or so). The upper trough that offered the more widespread showery / thundery weather of Friday and Saturday has relaxed off eastwards, where deep convection is now primarily focused across the high ground of western Romania this morning.
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SAT 13:45 BST: The showers now forming in a developmental area SE of the circuit will not arrive until after qualifying - by which time they could be turning heavier and thundery.
SAT 11:55 BST: The steering upper flow at 750 / 500hPa is essentially NNW-N at present, hence directing the storms a smidge west of Budapest in the next hour or so. It's this sort of fairly small-scale margin of forecast uncertainty that can make all the difference when trying to broad-brush a 'showery' forecast some hours / days ahead! As noted below, had this thundery cluster and downpours been 30-40 miles east (and that's really nothing in meteorological terms of forecast error bar), qualifying would be all set for some major (weather) drama...potentially even to the extent of being undriveable. Oh well!
SAT 11:40 BST: I bet the teams (if not the fans) are breathing a sigh of relief that the thunderstorms are staying firmly on the west side of the Danube - had they been on the east side, with the same progress, spatial coverage and northerly track, it would have been a direct hit for qualifying!
SAT 11:20 BST: No threat expected for qualifying from the lively cluster of thundery cells continuing to ease NNW into southern/central Hungary - current trajectory of this feature ensures it will track slightly west of Budapest later. So, aside from any isolated shower potential from local convective development (as temperatures rise to release instability), it's a dry, fine and increasingly very warm story continuing today into qualifying.
SAT 09:44 BST: Fine conditions at the circuit for FP3 then; worth keeping an eye for later on the next cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms just easing into south Hungary (now visible on radar).
SAT 09:00 BST: Hmmm. Some mid-level instability is rather noticeable in webcam shots above Budapest during the last 15 minutes. Will keep an eye on it....
SAT 08:30 BST: So, as forecast the rain was fairly extensive last night and pretty heavy in places, too. Thunderstorms rumbled not far south of the circuit until dawn; some high veils of cirrus this morning now the last visible evidence of them. The showers have now faded and sunshine prevails, with dry weather across northern Hungary. As noted in my forecasts earlier (see below), we can expect some extensive dry periods now, albeit with the chance of showers re-forming later. It's very possible these will appear post-qualifying however, so we can't rely on the weather gods to shake-up this particular grid! We shall see....
SAT 00:05 BST: The thundery rain forecast for tonight finally looms into view. In the next hour, some moderately heavy downpours will ease north across the circuit. Thundery elements are now widespread within the rainband, with a lot of recent lightning showing on the detection network (see link above). The latest UKMO NAE modelling continues the shower threat into the remainder of today, but - as noted all along - some prolonged drier intervals for many districts. So, the sessions could stay dry, but with showers building later PM.
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Forecast Summary:
(PPN = Precipitation)
Emphasis: Showers likely at times, but some prolonged dry and warm interludes dominating. Latest ensembles offer periodic wet weather arriving Friday (heaviest late PM); some spells of rain / showers Saturday - again mostly late PM; with Sunday largely dry & fine; a low chance of scattered showers developing PM.
Friday: Mostly cloudy; some brighter / sunny spells at times through broken mid-level cloud. Outbreaks of rain / showers / thunderstorms edging slowly east; these likely to develop more widely eastwards in the afternoon / evening / overnight, turning prolonged & heavy in places. Chance of PPN 70% (PM). Max 22C. Wind variable; light SSE / SSW later.
Saturday: Variable cloud cover with thundery spells of rain possible very early AM. Sunny spells then developing, albeit with some extensive high cloud at times and turning cloudier into the afternoon. Prolonged dry spells, potentially lasting for both track sessions. Showers forming through the afternoon and into the evening across Budapest area, some heavy. Chance of PPN 50%. Max 25C. Wind light NNW.
Sunday: Widespread sunshine. Very warm. Dry, fine weather across northern Hungary; some limited convective cloud building locally through the afternoon to introduce a very low risk of well-scattered showers, but more so in eastern areas of Hungary. Dry race very likely. Chance of PPN 10%. Max 28C. Wind light WNW.
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Synopsis & Forecast Evolution:
(With sincere thanks to Mike Trigger, Deputy Chief Forecaster, UK Met Office, for his expert input into my preparation of this latest forecast update)
Located in Mogyoród, some 11 miles (18km) northeast of Budapest, the Hungaroring circuit is set in a semi-rural topographical 'bowl' and often prone to bone-dry, dusty conditions at this time of year. However, it might be anything but dry and dusty at times later during Friday and indeed Saturday too, as an occluding front - tied to an upper trough - swings eastwards across Hungary through the weekend, offering a strong likelihood of showers making an appearance at various times around Budapest.
There's growing inter-model agreement for the broad evolution on Friday, as the frontal system - sitting effectively quasi-stationary for much of the day through Austria, Croatia and western Hungary - slowly starts to edge a bit further east.
However, some small timing differences between the key models (ECMWF, UKMO-GM and US-GFS) are critical and account for some of the 'spot forecast' variation many of you might have read on different weather websites!
For most of Friday, the models do concur in keeping the very wettest conditions further west / SW beneath the upper trough, especially across the borderlands with Austria and down into Slovenia and Croatia.
FP1 should stay dry albeit one or two showers are possible even at that stage of the day under largely brighter conditions. But as more cloud spills eastwards into the afternoon, it offers a steadily increasing chance of seeing some showers at times, associated with waves of upper forcing running northwards through the frontal band. The rate of frontal progression (and it has tended to vary!) will be important here for the wet/dry fortunes of FP2.
Thereafter, we expect an increasing chance of some periodically wet (potentially very wet) weather arriving later into the afternoon, evening and overnight... it's possible some of the downpours will turn heavy and thundery, offering a strong possibility of the circuit returning to entirely 'green' conditions ahead of Saturday.
Saturday will see the upper trough and occluding front moving further east across Budapest. The day may start overcast with some early morning thundery rain; thereafter brighter spells developing and a dry window likely into FP3 and qualifying.
However, under sunny spells and aided by insolation, the clouds are likely to start building into the afternoon in the distinctly unstable conditions and later offer a likelihood of showers, potentially around the time of qualifying but more especially afterwards.
By Sunday the models all agree on the upper trough relaxing further away to the east, albeit with some slight differences on exactly how far east it sits.
It's expected for the race to run in the sort of entirely dry and very warm conditions so often witnessed at this track, with strong sunshine. However, a few areas of convective cloud could bubble-up into the afternoon locally across some districts of Hungary, perhaps providing a (very low) chance of an isolated shower, but these are much more likely out further to the east.
Previous Nowcast Updates...
FRI 12:30 BST: The next frontal wave running up out of Zagreb area (Croatia) into SW Hungary is turning very lively and producing some readily thundery embedded cells with prodigious lightning. It'll track NNE into Budapest later for this evening. Meantime, as the current 'old' wave dies quickly now, the circuit should escape dry for FP2, bar a few spots of rain... not totally clear-cut given a bit of re-activation at the extreme south of this current plume of rain.
FRI 12:20 BST: A fair bit more rain on the webcam now, so at least there's some reliable groundtruth for tallying to the recorded rainfall radar return...!
FRI 12:10 BST: I suspect the teams are going to just get lucky here! The rain progress is (a) very slow eastwards and (b) rapidly now losing upper forcing in any case. I expect it might offer a few spots of rain into the circuit later in the session, but probably nothing more. So a good chance for FP2 to run under overcast skies (so lower track temperature) but in dry or largely dry conditions... meanwhile, as this area of rain fades northwards this afternoon, the next pulse is visible to the SSW on radar, being fed up as another wave runs up the frontal zone northwards. IIt'll offer a further threat of heavy showers / rain later this evening and tonight across Budapest.
FRI 12:00 BST: Spots of rain again now on the webcam in central Budapest...extensive high-based stratocumulus and altocumulus stratiformis above....
FRI 11:45 BST: Well, it's going to be interesting for FP2. You might recall how in the forecast text (below) I'd suggested: "The rate of frontal progression (and it has tended to vary!) will be important here for the wet/dry fortunes of FP2." No need to change this viewpoint... currently, it's raining on the western edge of Budapest but the eastward creep of the frontal band is very, very slow. Equally, the forcing is being gradually relaxed aloft, so trending more towards light / moderate rain for now. The increasing cloud and grey skies now across Budapest (see webcam above) are testimony to the close proximity of rain... but it's seemingly falling largely from mid-level instability close to the capital itself.
FRI 09:45 BST: The frontal rain lies not far west now of Budapest (see radar link above), with much of the earlier forcing now fading as we see a relaxing of the waves which will periodically run from south to north up the feature during today. This ebb and flow of development was well signalled in the latest models. For now, more widespread sunny spells prevailing; a hint of some localised convective development but any threat of showers held at bay through this session. By FP2 the frontal zone will be closer.
FRI 08:10 BST: Some hints of brighter / sunnier spells as the mid-level (altocumulus / altostatus) cloud breaks at times. The main rain and shower threat continues to be held out west, as per expectations. A reasonable chance for dry running in FP1 then, but further showers developing not far SSW of Budapest... and thundery oubreaks now in the main frontal band out in the SW of the country, edging east.
FRI 07:30 BST: Further showers now reported at Budapest - these very evident on the lens of the weather webcam (see link above).
FRI 06:10 BST: Lastest official observations from Budapest/Lorinc, south of the circuit (0500 GMT), report showers; temperature 18C, dewpoint 15 C; wind light NW; 7/8 cloud cover.
FRI 03:45 BST: Model timing and evolution currently looks good. A dry dawn in Budapest but (as the radar and lightning links above amply testify!) a lively thunderstorm is rumbling just west of the capital, in a pre-frontal showery zone ahead of more extensive rain - some heavy - draped through the western half of the country. As per the forecast below, this will all slowly edge eastwards later today with waves of forcing tending to intensify areas of it at times.
]]>(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: Sunday 25 July, 11:00hrs BST)
Quick Links:
Nowcast / Forecast Updates:
SUN 10:50HRS BST: OK, one more update then! It's been a sunny morning in Hockenheim, but cloud is tending to increase from the west and we'll see varying degrees of convective infill (stratocumulus) during the afternoon with sunny spells, offering the small chance of light scattered showers as mentioned in previous forecasts. Indeed as you'll note these also in the BBC's graphical web forecast (link above), which is directly driven by the Met Office's Global Model output. However, there's no prospect of the sort of heavy showers seen during Friday and (in places) on Saturday, so the race will be a dry one... I very much doubt any light passing showers will dampen the circuit in any troublesome sense.
SAT 21:30HRS BST: A quick update - albeit just to say that there's little need to change the prognosis for tomorrow! The forecast has run pretty well so far since Wednesday (localised shower detail obviously aside), so the race is expected to run in the dry, as previously described here, with minimal shower threat. Unless there's a dramatic ( = weather!) reason to offer more updates tomorrow, I'll chat to you all again here in a week's time for Hungary! Meantime, hope you enjoy our coverage tomorrow! Thanks for supporting this blog.
SAT 12:25HRS BST: Forecast continues to hold good - including the brighter spells post-FP3 - and local nuances in shower activity are now very apparent on radar. Heavy showers are forming regularly not far to the east, forced orographically by high ground. So far, showers above the circuit have been light and fleeting in the last hour with most of the developmental activity a little to the south, as well as east.
SAT 09:55HRS BST: So, the next crop of showers duly arrives. Some of these could now turn heavier as the forcing starts to increase again. It'll be hit-miss in terms of wet spells from now to quali.
SAT 08:45HRS BST: Satellite imagery continues to hint at brighter / sunny spells developing with time (which will help dry things out considerably), albeit a cloudy story across the circuit at present. Some light to moderate showers elsewhere to the north, confirmed by latest crop of surface observations.
SAT 07:40HRS BST: Once again, Hockenheim has been deluged overnight with some heavy rain which has been clearing slowly southwards this morning. Further showers have followed behind, some of these rather heavy in places, so at the moment the forecast is very much as per expectations. The high-resolution models continue to offer a chance of some showers throughout this morning and into the early afternoon - around 5 - 10mm accumulation from now until 1200 GMT - with a steady reduction in % chance of rain as the day continues. It's be very much hit-or-miss fortunes at the circuit but at least the chance of dry running is pretty good. Satellite imagery also hints at a chance of brighter or sunny spells developing too, albeit these could help take temperatures slightly higher and provide sufficient extra 'oomph' to force some further shower development. FP3 will see residual wet track initially, but a dry line quickly established (if showers miss altogether - not guaranteed!). Qualifying has a fair chance of taking place in dry conditions, but with a few showers still possible. Effectively it's a radar watching day on the pitwalls as we see how the shower development / tracks phase with FP3 and quali.
Forecast Summary:
(PPN = Precipitation)
Emphasis: Wet running expected at times, Fri-Sat. Wettest conditions will be Thursday PM. Showers expected Friday, becoming frequent & heavier later; also further patchy spells of rain / showers on Saturday to give damp conditions especially AM. The race is expected to be dry or largely so with a small chance of afternoon showers.
Friday: Variable cloud cover, with showers and spells of rain at times during the day, becoming more frequent, heavier and possibly thundery into the afternoon, evening and overnight. Chance of PPN 80%. Max 22C. Wind light WNW.
Saturday: Variable (and at times rather extensive) cloud cover, with showers and spells of rain feeding southwards through the early to mid morning; some showers possible thereafter into early afternoon. However, a gradual reduction in the wet weather % chance through the afternoon with some sunny spells developing. Chance of PPN 70%. Max 23C. Wind light-moderate NW.
Sunday: Variable cloud cover, with sunny spells and convective cloud increasing during the afternoon. Low chance of light afternoon showers, so on balance dry conditions are expected throughout the race. Chance of PPN 30%. Max 21C. Wind light W.
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Remember this start at Hockenheim in 2001? Burti "does a Webber" in his Prost over the slow-starting Ferrari of Michael Schumacher. The German veteran will be hoping for a strong Mercedes result in front of his adoring home crowd (AP Photo / Thomas Kienzle)
Synopsis & Forecast Evolution:
The German Grand Prix returns south to Hockenheim this year, where conditions have been sweltering lately and will turn so again into mid-week.
By Wednesday, temperatures will be peaking in the low to mid 30's C, before a cold front and shortwave troughs - associated with a thundery area of low pressure over Germany - moves eastwards during Thursday. A broadscale upper trough aloft edges east out of Holland and France, engaging some very high WBPT (Wet Bulb Potential Temperature) air.
This brings the potential for some very heavy (even torrential) downpours and thunderstorms developing across western / southern parts of Germany during Thursday afternoon and evening, as the hot, humid airmass is pushed away progressively to the southeast. I would not be at all surprised to see some major cloudbursts at Hockenheim - it's certainly got all the ingredients to be very wet as the pitlanes are made ready. However, at least the very worst of the weather we're expecting into the next few days will have passed through before the cars take to the track... but there's still every chance of some wet running.
There's now pretty good model agreement for Friday to see further showers - some heavy and perhaps thundery - although the latest ECMWF ensemble offers a fair spread of likely rainfall totals at Hockenheim all through the day with the heavier downpours appearing into the afternoon and evening. So, there should be windows of dry running. It's all about how the shower potential phases (or not) with FP1 and FP2; i.e., it's a radar watching scenario for the pitwalls - as will also prove the case on Saturday, too.
Of course, if Friday is wet for any prolonged periods, it'll prove bad news for those testing crucial new development parts - notably McLaren, who are aiming to further refine and introduce their blown diffuser for this race weekend. The teams will all be hoping for the current improving forecast to firm-up further.
Into Saturday, high pressure will start to extend and ridge eastwards from the Azores, slowly offering more benign and sunnier conditions across western Europe. However, with a vortex slipping south in the early morning and the upper trough looking slow to move east, conditions at Hockenheim remain unsettled and wet at times, especially during the first few hours of the day. GFS, ECMWF and MetO-GM / NAE are now all in good agreement for vorticity to remain aloft north-south; spells of rain or showers easing south during the early morning and despite tending to brighten-up and dry out, some showers are still possible into midday / early afternoon.
Sunday sees the ridge of high pressure continuing to become more firmly and more quickly established from the west. Forecast continuity is now improving, offering dry and hazily sunny conditions to prevail during the race window, but with some cumulus clouds building into the afternoon, offering a low % threat of light showers and temperatures in the low to mid 20's C and light winds. The latest UKMO-GM profiling suggests showers are a low probability and hence a dry race seems the most likely outcome.
Updates, as ever, to follow.....
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We're well into the season when thunderstorms are most prevalent across the West Country. It's been very quiet in our skies through spring and summer thus-far, but I'm expecting that to change this week...
A low pressure system moving up from the southwest during Wednesday has the potential to bring some thundery downpours across parts of the West Country - as well as some much-needed heavy rain for the parched landscape!
The prospect of thunderstorms is also welcome and timely news for us here at the BBC.
We're busy making an half-hour programme for BBC ONE, due to be broadcast on a Sunday as part of the BBC's Weather Week in September 2010.
I'll be presenting our regional documentary - Wild Weather of the West - and I'm hoping for your collective input!
Here's the plan:
In the documentary and online, we're keen to show some of the best lightning photographs taken this year across the West Country.
And from some of the wonderful photos sent regularly to us at the BBC Bristol weatherdesk, we're clearly blessed with some very talented photographers across the region, but even if you've never photographed lightning before, why not (safely!) give it a try - if the opportunity arises? I'll certainly be trying my best here in South Gloucestershire, but the more cameras across the region this summer, the better the chances!
I've just been interviewing Matt Gibson for the programme. He's a very skilled amateur local photographer from Hotwells, Bristol - check out some of Matt's wide diversity of images on his Flickr site.
Although not a specialist thunderstorm chaser (unlike some of you who read the blog!), Matt has successfully shot lightning before such as the image above, taken in Clifton, Bristol. He has some very handy tips for all other budding Storm Snappers:
Overall
Tripod & Room Setup
Camera
Lens
Focus
Exposure
Shutter Speed
Aperture
ISO speed
Safety Guidance
I've filmed in many severe thunderstorms before and trust me, it can get pretty hairy if you're caught out in the open away from safe shelter - especially in the dark. So before attempting any photography, we do insist that you read the Health & Safety advice below.
Making safety your first priority:
Do not go outside to photograph lightning:
Do not lean out of a door or window:
What to do if there is no shelter available:
Submitting Images
It's important you read this and the disclaimer to include in your accompanying email before sending photos to us.
Meantime, if any of our more experienced storm chasing readers wish to share advice, expertise or such-like with other enthusiasts, please do so in the comments section here on the blog. Thanks!
Happy shooting! Keep an eye on the forecasts and keep safe!
]]>(This forecast will be regularly updated. This entry: Sunday 11 July, 09:00hrs BST)
Quick Links:
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Nowcast Updates:
Sunday, 0900BST: The forecast evolution from the Met Office has proven very accurate, with the weakening cold front easing across Silverstone between 7 and 8am this morning. Rainfall radar suggested some isolated areas of light showery rain in places around the circuit towards 7.45am. These, along with the frontal boundary cloud, have now passed SE and the skies continue to clear, with warm sunshine but a fresher feel compared to yesterday. Today's temperatures will be towards the mid-20's; it will now remain dry for the rest of the day and again somewhat breezy later.
Forecast Headlines:
(PPN = Precipitation)
Changes of Emphasis: None significant:
Friday: Early high cloud but turning sunny; chance of PPN <5%. V. warm. Max 27C. Wind moderate SSW. Warm overnight.
Saturday: Sunny start, but with high and mid-level cloud continuing to spill gradually east through the day to make hazier sunshine. With more convective infill too, it'll be a cloudier story compared to Friday. Staying dry, with chance of PPN 5%. V warm. Max 27C. Breezy at times. Wind SSW. Warm overnight.
Sunday: Band of cloudier weather easing SE through the early to mid-morning, with isolated patches of light rain possible. Sunny spells then developing progressively and continuing into the afternoon for the race, which should be dry and fine; turning cloudier again late afternoon. Chance of PPN 20%. Max 25C. Breezy at times. Wind light-moderate W.
NB: Monday - for those leaving later - will turn wet across Silverstone through the morning.
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The 2010 British Grand Prix will enjoy a good deal of very warm weather, albeit turning rather cloudy at times. Current expectations are for dry, sunny and warm conditions during qualifying and the race (Photo: Mark Thompson / Getty Images)
Synopsis and Forecast Emphasis:
Being back in the geographical 'comfort zone' for this home Grand Prix forecast doesn't necessarily make my job any easier, but at least I've got a suite of detailed UK Met Office predictive products at hand for this one... plus their ever-helpful Chief Forecaster at the end of a 'phone!
One dominant thrust of the forecast will see rising temperatures across southern and especially southeast / eastern-central England later this week. Friday and Saturday will see the highest temperatures; it'll certainly be a warm event throughout, with some strong sunshine on Friday and Saturday especially.
In broadscale terms, the British Isles sees something of a NW to SE split developing later this week, with areas further south and east across England remaining largely dry and warm; perhaps even hot in parts of the SE especially.
By the weekend, low pressure will be skirting up from the Atlantic to the NW of the British Isles and high pressure sitting across Denmark and Holland. The localised detail for Sunday, particularly in terms of shower potential, remains subject to flux but confidence in the broad thrust of the forecast is looking pretty good, with model continuity improving.
Friday will be dry, fine, very warm and humid for Free Practice 1 and 2, with strong sunshine developing and patchy fair-weather cloud.
It's a repeat story on Saturday for Free Practice 3 and Qualifying: a glorious morning, albeit with increasing amounts of high and mid-level cloud spreading slowly across Silverstone through the mid-afternoon. Moderately breezy at times; possibly a factor for qualifying, tending to unsettle the cars in various parts of the circuit.
Into the weekend, a trailing cold front will be draped SW-NE across the west of the British Isles. With a series of minor wave-like disturbances running up it, the front will tend to shift positioning, as will any attendant risk of showers or rain. It'll remain across W/NW areas of England during Saturday before slowly edging further SE during Sunday morning, bringing more cloud and offering a small chance a light shower across Silverstone around mid-morning.
The slow, southeastwards creep of this trailing cold front has been consistently signalled in recent output from the UKMO Global Model. The latest (Sat. PM) detailed forecast assessment prepared by the Met Office's Chief Forecaster offers an essentially dry and fine story for Sunday, particularly the race window itself. Albeit an isolated light shower could develop around parts of Bucks and Northants through the first half of the day, as the fragmenting frontal boundary lingers close to Silverstone and temperatures rise, it is considered a low point probability. Once the front clear south, skies will then brighten-up by race start, to offer increasing amounts of dry and sunny weather into the early to mid afternoon.
It'll certainly prove another very warm day, but a tad cooler than the previous two, as the very warm air across eastern/SE England gets squeezed away back towards the near continent. It'll again prove rather breezy at times.
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As indicated in my previous forecasts, Glastonbury 2010 continues on a settled and hot note for Saturday and Sunday. Dry weather has prevailed since last weekend at Pilton and the parched ground is now set to remain underfoot until the end of the festival.
Overnight temperatures at Worthy Farm will remain very comfortable between now and Sunday: by dawn, falling to low double figures (10-12C). It'll stay dry and settled nocturnally between now and Sunday night, with some local mistiness by dawn.
The Glastonbury forecast offers this type of fine, settled and very warm weather into the weekend, with just a very small chance of showers (Photo: Matt Cardy / Getty Images)
High pollen counts and - as you'd expect - high UV levels will remain a feature into Sunday's fine weather.
It will continue the dry, largely sunny and very warm theme experienced on Saturday, as a southerly drift up into the British Isles keeps temperatures high across all of southern England. Much as we saw on Saturday, expect a maximum by mid to late afternoon around 26-28C, with a very low chance (<10%) of showers. So, it's very likely that Glastonbury 2010 will enjoy dry, fine conditions right through to it's conclusion.
And how I wish I was there to see Stevie Wonder - my muscial hero (and his brilliant bassman, Nathan Watts... will he also be on stage? Please let me know!).
Enjoy - and thanks to all of you who have been visiting the blog this past week.
Daily Summary:
WEDNESDAY: Dry, very warm and sunny. Max temp. 25C. Wind light SW
THURSDAY: Rather cloudy, misty start. Sunny spells then developing; small chance of a light shower. Humid feel. Max temp. 22C. Wind light WNW
FRIDAY: Early mist quickly clearing; sunny, dry and warm. Max temp. 25C. Wind light-moderate WNW.
SATURDAY: Sunny and very warm / hot. Chance of showers very low (<10%). Max temp 28C. Wind light WSW.
SUNDAY: Sunny and very warm / hot. Chance of showers very low (<10%). Max temp 28C. Wind light SSE.
MONDAY: Sunny spells and very warm.Max temp. 26C. Wind light W.
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Quick Links:
BBC Weather Glastonbury Forecast summary
Rainfall Radar (with zoom function, via MeteoGroup)
Visible Satellite Loop (EUMETSAT/DWD via sat24.com)
Live Webcams (via BBC)
Glastonbury Festival official website
BBC Glastonbury Festival website (includes TV/Radio schedules)
BBC Somerset: local news / travel updates / links to local & regional radio & TV
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